Reds vs. Pirates MLB Free Picks and Preview

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Connor Overton #71 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches. Dylan Buell/Getty Images/AFP

The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates will start another divisional series over the weekend.

The Reds defeated the Pirates last weekend in a three-game series and will try to earn another series win with the first game of the series tonight. Can the Reds earn win number 8?

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Thursday, May 12, 2022 – 06:35 PM EDT at PNC Park

MLB's Thursday Small Plate

It’s a small slate of games today. So I’ll be writing about the 7-win Cincinnati Reds and 13-win Pittsburgh Pirates.

But to be fair, both of these teams are kind of hot right now. The Pirates just beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in a three-game series, at home.

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Meanwhile, the Reds have won four of their last six games and defeated the Pirates and Brewers in three-game series.

Who is Pitching for the Reds?

The Reds will pitch Connor Overton, who has actually been solid to start the season.

  • Overton has an xFIP of 3.94 with just 5.1% walks and 46.7% ground balls.
  • He is allowing a solid amount of line drives this season but has limited the power numbers from both sides of the plate.
  • After all, Overton has a 2.53 ERA through 39 plate appearances on the year.
  • He’s been solid and will go up against a Pirates lineup that has a .110 ISO and wOBA of .293 against righties this season.

Who Will Take the Mound for the Pirates?

On the other hand, JT Brubaker will take the mound with this 5.68 ERA for the Pirates.

  • Brubaker has an xFIP of 4.30 but is striking out 28.6% of batters this season. That’s about the only thing going well for him.
  • Brubaker is allowing 25.9% line drives and inducing just 34.5% of ground balls with 11.2% walks in the last 30 days.
  • Lefties have a .324 wOBA and ISO of .209 against Brubaker in the last 30 days.
  • In the lineup for the Reds, there’s Mike Moustakas, who has a .352 wOBA, and Colin Moran, who has a .283 ISO.

There are also other righties in the lineup that can do some damage too. Overall, the Reds lineup looks better with a .164 ISO and wOBA of .312 against righties this season.

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The Reds also have seven of nine players hitting at least 21.4% line drives and righties and Cincinnati is also walking 9.1% of the time with that lineup.


The Reds and Pirates won’t be the most exciting game to watch. But the reality is, most Reds games are going over the total.

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The offense is performing at a high enough level but the pitching hasn’t been up to par with hitting.

However, Overton has been one of the few bright spots for the Reds this season with a 2.53 ERA.

While Brubaker is the Pirates’ “ace” pitcher, he’s simply not pitching like it with his 5.68 ERA to begin the year.

Brubaker might earn more strikeouts but the Reds will also earn plenty of line drives and get on base at a high rate against any righty that they face.

For my MLB picks, give me the 7-win Reds, as underdogs, to win this game outright.

MLB Pick: Reds (+115) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Reds (+115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.