Red Sox vs. Yankees MLB Preview and Free Pick

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Rafael Devers #11 of the Boston Red Sox hits a solo home run in the first inning against the New York Yankees. Elsa/Getty Images/AFP.

The Yankees destroyed the Red Sox in the second game of the three-game rivalry series last night. Today, we’ll get a rubber match before the All-Star break between the Yankees and Red Sox. In a battle between two aces, which team will get the win?

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks! Here are our picks and predictions for the rivalry matchup between the Red Sox and Yankees.

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

Sunday, July 17, 2022 – 01:35 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium

Red Sox vs. Yankees: What You Should Know

Last night, the New York Yankees defeated the Boston Red Sox, 14-1, and will now look to get a three-game series win over Boston before the All-Star break.

The Yankees will head into the All-Star Break with the best record in baseball as they’re currently holding a 63-28 record on the season.

New York has had a little bit of trouble closing out games in the last week or so, but before the trade deadline, the Yankees will only get better.

Who Is Pitching for the Yankees Today?

The Yankees will send out Gerrit Cole, who is 8-2 in the season with a 3.05 ERA. Sure, his ERA is a bit high, but ultimately, he’s pitched very well for the Yankees since starting the season a little bit sluggish.

Cole has a 3.61 xFIP in the last 30 days along with nearly 35% of strikeouts in the last 30 days. He’s also walked 9.5% of batters in that time frame and has a BABIP of .185, which is a bit unsustainable.

However, he doesn’t allow as many balls in play as a typical pitcher does due to his high strikeout rate.

Who Is Pitching for the Red Sox Today?

On the other hand, it’ll be Chris Sale for the Red Sox. He’s making his second start of the season since returning from injury. In his first start, he went 5 innings and allowed no runs, while holding a WHIP of .80.

Sale is obviously one of the best pitchers in the game, but it’s still unclear if he’ll ever get back to that Chris Sale.

Anyway, he had an xFIP of 3.00 in his start with 26.3% of strikeouts and 5.3% of walks. If he keeps that up, good things will be in store for Sale moving forward.

Lineups Analysis

New York Yankees

  • The Yankees have enjoyed hitting left-handed pitchers this season.
  • In the last 30 days, the Yankees have a .223 ISO and wOBA of .316 using their projected lineup against lefties.
  • Sale did give up 30.8% of line drives in his first start back off the injured list. That’s not something you want to see.
  • The Yankees have only hit 18.9% of line drives against lefties in the last 30 days.

Boston Red Sox

  • On the other hand, the Red Sox haven’t had much power against righties.
  • In the last 30 days, they have hit a .129 ISO with their projected lineup against righties.
  • Only Rafael Devers has been hitting righties at a ridiculous pace for the Red Sox.
  • Frenchy Cordero and Jarren Duran have some potential and are both left-handed bats, taking on the righty.

Red Sox vs. Yankees: Game Prediction

Red Sox Lineup Against Gerrit Cole

Gerrit Cole always seems to struggle against the Red Sox. More specifically, he struggles against Rafael Devers, who just recently knocked a pair of homers against Cole in his last meeting against them.

While Cole has pitched very well, he’s also been a bit lucky. He’s giving up 40% of hard contact, rarely getting ground balls, and still has a BABIP of .185 with 9.5% of walks.

Cole gets himself in trouble sometimes putting up these kinds of numbers. The BABIP number is likely not sustainable when allowing 40% of hard contact.

Yankees Lineup Against Chris Sale

Meanwhile, we can’t expect Chris Sale to go deep in today’s game. The Yankees will work him and probably force Sale out of the game by the 6th inning.

Once the Yankees are able to feast off the inconsistent bullpen of the Red Sox, New York will probably run away with this game late. But I must admit that the Red Sox have had their fair share of success against the bullpen of the Yankees as well.

MLB Betting Pick for Today

I like the Yankees in the latter portion of the game, but I will bet against Cole in this one and take the Red Sox to score 2 runs in the first 5 innings.

The Red Sox have a bunch of lefties with potential against Cole, and his numbers, to me, just seem unsustainable.

For my MLB picks of the day, I’m grabbing the Red Sox Over 1.5 in the first 5 on the team total.

MLB Pick: Red Sox Over 1.5 F5 Team Total (+105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Red Sox Over 1.5 F5 Team Total (+105)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.