Red Sox vs. Yankees MLB Predictions for July 15

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Nathan Eovaldi #17 of the Boston Red Sox throws against the Los Angeles Angels. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images/AFP

The Boston Red Sox will start Nathan Eovaldi for the first time since landing on the injured list. Can Eovaldi help the Red Sox get by the Yankees in the first game of the three-game series in the Bronx? Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the best sportsbooks!

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

Friday, July 15, 2022 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium

What to Expect From These Teams

The New York Yankees are coming off an embarrassing series loss to the Cincinnati Reds. Yet, the Yankees are still 62-27 on the season and doing just fine in the American League standings. 

Meanwhile, the Red Sox are just 47-43 on the season and, if swept on the road, would finish the first half of the season a game above .500. That’s not where the Red Sox want to be. Anyway, the Red Sox split with the Yankees at home earlier this month. Can the Red Sox earn a win in the first game of this road series?

Here are our MLB picks and predictions for tonight’s game between the Red Sox and Yankees.

The Pitching Matchup

The Red Sox are starting to get healthy with their starting rotation. Nathan Eovaldi will make his return to the diamond after landing on the injured list. 

On the season, the right-hander is 4-2 with a 3.16 ERA. Analytically, he has a 3.72 xFIP with 25.8% of strikeouts and 3.6% of walks. 

He’s also induced a high amount of ground balls of over 45% and has limited line drives to 16.8%. 

Meanwhile, Jordan Montgomery will get the ball for the Yankees. The left-hander has a 4.15 xFIP with a low amount of strikeouts in the last 30 days. 

Montgomery has struck out under 20% of batters in the last 30 days while giving up 22.8% of line drives.

Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?

The Yankees’ lineup has really produced recently. In the last 30 days, the Yankees are hitting a .229 ISO and a wOBA of .342 against righties while limiting strikeouts to 21.3%. 

Eovaldi is known for giving up hard contact but sometimes, it’s hard to hit the flame-throwing right-hander. 

Still, the Yankees have earned 10.9% of walks against righties in the same 30-day timeframe. 

On the other hand, the Red Sox are hitting a .166 ISO but also have a wOBA of .365 against lefties in the last 30 days. Like the Yankees, they’ve limited strikeouts and earned 10% of walks in the last 30 days when facing a lefty with their projected lineup. 

Only two batters in the Red Sox lineup have a wOBA of below .322 against lefties, which is favorable for Boston. 

Game Prediction

The Yankees are struggling to close out the first half of the season. Meanwhile, the Red Sox allowed a five-run 7th inning against the Rays and ended up losing the finale against Tampa Bay, 5-4, because of poor management in the bullpen. 

So both teams aren’t really having it their way right now. One team will come out of this series happy with a series win. 

The Red Sox should be able to get a ton of base runners on against Montgomery. The Red Sox have destroyed lefties at the top of their order, between Rob Regsnyder, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts. Those three have high wOBA and above-average ISO’s against lefties in the last 30 days. 

Meanwhile, the Yankees have a high amount of power against righties and usually limit ground balls at a very high rate. Against Eovaldi, things will be a bit more difficult, but it’s hard to know how Eovaldi will pitch when he returns. 

Some pitchers look rusty off the injured list and then some look like their old versions and pitch extremely well. So that’s hard to predict, but overall, Eovaldi has had better stuff throughout the season than Montgomery, when healthy. 

The Pick

To me, there’s value on the Red Sox, on the road, in Game 1. The Yankees are coming off a bad series against the Reds and will now have to face Nathan Eovaldi, who is looking to make his first start off the injured list. 

Eovaldi is never easy to hit when in a groove and if he can get in that groove, the Yankees will struggle to score. Meanwhile, the Red Sox will just need to hit with runners in scoring position against Montgomery. A couple of hits in that situation could get the job done. 

Therefore, with my MLB Play of the Day, I’m taking the Red Sox +1.5 at -140. I’ll play it safe, but I’m confident that the Red Sox will be in this game and potentially win it. 

Final Score Prediction: Red Sox, 4, Yankees 3

MLB Pick:
 Red Sox +1.5 (-140) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Red Sox +1.5 (-140)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.