Red Sox vs. White Sox MLB Free Picks and Preview

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Michael Wacha #52 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the second inning of a game against the Los Angeles Angels. Adam Glanzman/Getty Images/AFP

The Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox will send out veteran arms for a crucial rubber match game.

Whoever wins tonight’s game will have solid momentum heading into the weekend. With both teams sitting close to .500, this game matters. Who will win it?

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!

Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox

Thursday, May 26, 2022- 08:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field

Teams Standings

It was such a disaster to start the year, but the Boston Red Sox are inching closer to .500 baseball. Yesterday’s loss didn’t help, but ultimately, the Red Sox are much better than their record.

Tonight, the Red Sox will finish up the series against the White Sox, looking to get the series win in the rubber match game.

The White Sox also haven’t had the best start to the season but, just like the Red Sox, this team is better than their record would indicate.

We’re in for a treat on Thursday night. Our betting picks and predictions for the Red Sox and White Sox rubber match are here.

Who Pitches For the Red Sox Today?

The Boston Red Sox will send out Michael Wacha, who has a 1.76 ERA to start the season.

Analytics would suggest that Wacha has been a bit lucky, however, as Wacha has a 5.45 xFIP with just 15.6% of strikeouts and 10.9% of walks in the last 30 days.

Wacha's BABIP is currently sitting at .217, which is where the luck starts to show.

Still, Wacha has limited righties and while he has given up slightly higher power to lefties, ultimately, he’s been very solid.

Who Pitches For the White Sox Today?

Meanwhile, Dallas Keuchel will take the mound for the White Sox. The left-hander has an xFIP of 6.79 in the last 30 days with 9.8% of strikeouts and 15.2% of walks.

His ERA is pretty fair, as it’s also sitting at 6.60. He allowed six runs in his last start against the Yankees and has now given up 42 hits in 30 innings along with 27 runs.

Red Sox Lineup Analysis

  • The Red Sox haven’t been all that promising against lefties recently. But any team going up against Keuchel would be licking their chops.
  • The Red Sox have a .121 ISO and wOBA of .296 in the last 30 days but have a lineup that consists of seven righties going up against Keuchel.

White Sox Lineup Analysis

  • On the flip side, the White Sox haven’t been any better against righties, with a .114 ISO and wOBA of .276.
  • Only Tim Anderson has a wOBA above .300 against righties in the last 30 days, which is really bad for a White Sox lineup that was so much better last season.

Red Sox vs. White Sox: Game Prediction

Michael Wacha is 3-0 with a 1.76 ERA. I wouldn’t want to fade him but I also don’t trust those numbers knowing that Wacha has allowed a 5.45 xFIP in the last 30 days.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Wacha got through five innings while allowing just one run. He’s done that countless times this season.

But I also wouldn’t be surprised if things start to catch up to him and Wacha gets hit off the mound. That’s why I’m going to go in a different direction.

I’m going to predict the Red Sox have a solid day hitting the ball. That’s the way to go. The Red Sox will have seven righties in a lineup going against Keuchel, who is a lefty.

Righties have a .349 wOBA against Keuchel in the last 30 days and minimize strikeouts while getting a high amount of walks.

Red Sox vs. White Sox: Betting Pick

Therefore, I’m looking at the Red Sox to score three runs in the first five innings at +105.

Keuchel has allowed three or more runs in four of his first seven starts this season and literally has two games without a single strikeout.

The Red Sox has plenty of power bats and bats that are starting to really come on strong now, including a guy like Trevor Story.

Who to Bet On?

With my MLB pick, it’s going to be the Red Sox Over 2.5 in the first five innings on the team total at +105.

Keuchel allows three runs more than not, yet we’re getting plus money on this bad boy.

MLB Pick: Red Sox Over 2.5 First Five Team Total (+105) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Red Sox Over 2.5 First Five Team Total (+105)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.