The New York Mets will look to sweep the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN. However, with Zack Wheeler on the mound for the Phillies, the Mets could struggle to get runs on the board in the series finale. How will tonight’s game play out?
Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us!
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Sunday, May 29, 2022 – 07:08 PM EDT at Citi Field
The New York Mets have already won another series against the Philadelphia Phillies, after winning the first two games of the series on Friday and Saturday. Tonight, the Mets will look for the sweep over the Phillies, but it’s going to be no easy task going up against former Mets starter, Zack Wheeler.
However, the Mets have one of their aces on the mound in Chris Bassitt, so there’s reason to believe that the Mets can hang tight with the Phillies in the series finale.
Here are our MLB picks and predictions for Sunday’s baseball game between the Phillies and Mets on ESPN.
The Pitching Match-Up
Zack Wheeler will take the mound for the Phillies and he’s been terrific recently. In the last 30 days, Wheeler has had a 2.52 xFIP along with 33% of strikeouts and just 2% of walks. Wheeler isn’t getting a ton of grounders and isn’t limiting line drives at a high rate, but he gets so many strikeouts, that type of contact isn’t a huge factor.
Meanwhile, Chris Bassitt will take the hill for the Mets. He was roughed up in his last outing against the Giants and now has an xFIP of 5.04 in the last 30 days. That was Bassitt’s worst start of the season, as he allowed eight runs against the Giants. But overall, Bassitt still has a 3.91 ERA on the season and should be able to bounce back nicely.
Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?
The Phillies have a .167 ISO and wOBA of .312 against righties in the last 30 days using the projected lineup. Only Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Garrett Stubbs have been hitting righties at a consistent rate.
On the other hand, the Mets have a .150 ISO and wOBA of .328 against righties using their projected lineup in the last 30 days. The one area where the Mets have done well is limiting strikeouts.
Against righties, the Mets have struck out just 17% of the time while Wheeler has struck out 33% of batters. If the Mets can put the ball in play, good things will happen. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out.
Bassitt has been allowing a lot of power recently. Against his last 57 lefties, Bassitt has allowed an ISO of .231. In the last 74 plate appearances against righties, Bassitt has allowed a .227 ISO along with a wOBA of .384.
Bassitt has not been perfect and will go up against a bunch of lefties that have a ton of power against righties. This isn’t the best matchup for him.
Meanwhile, the Mets usually struggle against Zack Wheeler. They’ve had their moments since he left the Mets, but ultimately, Wheeler usually has their number. The Mets have an above-average weighted on-base average against righties and limit strikeouts, but I’m not so sure the Mets will limit strikeouts against Zack Wheeler, who is one of the premier pitchers in the game.
If Wheeler is blowing the Mets hitters away, the Phillies will likely escape with a win against the Mets in the final game of the series. Wheeler has also been a bit unlucky to start the season, which is another reason why it’s likely that Wheeler puts together a good game. His BABIP is sitting at .359, which is surely going to regress to the mean as the season continues.
Lefties are more of a problem for Wheeler this season. Therefore, Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil are likely the biggest threats along with Pete Alonso, who is a righty, but having the best season of his career, while leading the league in RBIs.
With that said, I’m going to take the Phillies in the first five innings in this game. I trust Wheeler way more in this matchup. Wheeler has been sensational analytically this season while Bassitt has struggled recently with a high xFIP and high ISO numbers.
Nobody would be surprised to see the Phillies' left-handed bats have success in tonight’s game.
With my MLB pick, I’m rolling with the Phillies in the first half.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.