The New York Mets will look to win another series to start the season. This series is likely the most important series of them all, going up against the Philadelphia Phillies at home. Can the Mets start it off with a win? Let’s see what the MLB odds for this matchup tell us!
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Friday, April 29, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
The New York Mets are currently 14-6 and lead the NL East by multiple games. However, it’s still early and with the Mets facing the Phillies in a three-game series, things can change in a heartbeat. So far the Mets haven’t lost a single series to start the season.
If the Mets end up winning a couple of games against the Phillies, the Mets would start the season in April without losing a series. That would be an incredible feat but we can’t get ahead of ourselves.
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Aaron Nola will take the mound for the Phillies. He’s 1-2 with a 3.74 ERA to start the season. In his first two games, Nola allowed seven runs in 9.1 innings. Since then, he’s allowed just two runs on seven hits in 12.1 innings.
In those 12.1 innings, Nola struck out 13 and walked just two. He’s looking much better now. Nola has a 3.66 xFIP with 29.8% strikeouts to begin the year. He’s also inducing 58.8% ground balls. However, don’t forget that he struggled against the Mets earlier this year, giving up three runs on three hits in 3.1 innings.
The projected lineup for the Mets has a .159 ISO but also a .344 wOBA. The Mets have guys that can get on base and create havoc for Nola. On the other hand, Tylor Megill will get the call for the Mets. Megill has a 3.41 xFIP with 24.7% strikeouts and 3.4% walks.
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Megill isn’t on Nola’s level but he’s got the tools to get there. Megill is allowing a little bit of power to righties but ultimately has a 2.35 ERA through four games while pitching at least five innings in every start.
The Phillies’ lineup is balanced with a .199 ISO and wOBA of .345. However, this very lineup struggled against Megill earlier in the year, scoring no runs in 5.1 innings of Megill.
Prediction
Tonight, this isn’t just a normal Friday baseball game. It’s a rivalry game against a divisional opponent that means a little bit more. Mets fans should be out in full force and we’ll see some Phillies fans sneak in as well to create a hostile environment.
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But just looking back at the games these two pitched earlier this season, Megill should ultimately put together the better start. The Mets work counts better and the Phillies hit home runs more. In the dead ball era, give me on-base averages overpower averages.
For my MLB picks, I’ll take the Mets in the first five innings on the money line. Nola might even allow a home run in this game, knowing he’s given up four in four games this season.
Score Prediction: Mets 4, Phillies 2
MLB Pick: Mets F5 (-120) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
