Phillies vs. Braves Free MLB Picks and Preview

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The Atlanta Braves will look to capitalize on another left-handed pitcher in tonight’s ball game against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Can the Braves unload on Ranger Suarez in tonight’s rivalry matchup? Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves

Wednesday, May 25, 2022- 7:20 PM EDT at Truist Park

Team Standings

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves are all tied up in the NL East standings with both teams sitting at 20-23 on the season.

Neither team is all that happy with where they stand right now, but ultimately, there are still two games left in this series.

There’s also plenty of time this season to get back on track and over .500. Yesterday, the Braves defeated the Phillies, 6-5.

In the 9th, the Braves blew the save but then rallied in the bottom half of the inning to win the game.

How will tonight’s game play out? Here are our betting picks and predictions for Wednesday night’s game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves.

Who Pitches For the Braves Today?

Charlie Morton will take the mound for the Braves. Morton has a 4.95 ERA along with a 3-3 record.

However, in May, he pitched much better and has an ERA of 3.27 the month. In the last 30 days, Morton still has a 5.33 xFIP with 11.2% of walks.

But again, Morton has given up just four runs in his last three starts. Things are starting to roll in his direction.

Who Pitches For the Phillies Today?

Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez has allowed six runs in his last two starts. He has a 4.12 ERA to start the season but has allowed 11 runs in his last 21 innings pitched.

Suarez has a 4.18 xFIP in the last 30 days but has struggled against righties, allowing a .350 wOBA and ISO of .198 in his last 89 plate appearances against righties as a left-handed thrower.

Braves Lineup Analysis

  • The Braves have dominated lefties recently, hitting a .259 ISO and wOBA of .337 in the last 30 days.
  • Atlanta will strike out at a high rate but also walks 13.7% of the time with the projected lineup against lefties.
  • Atlanta will have eight righties in the lineup to go up against Suarez. Remember, Suarez has struggled against righties already this season.

Phillies Lineup Analysis

  • Meanwhile, the Phillies have had a .156 ISO and wOBA of .296 in the last 30 days against righties. Philadelphia has also struck out 25% of the time and walked just 7.4% of the time against righties in that same time frame.
  • Other than Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, the Phillies lineup doesn’t have much consistency against righties.

Phillies vs. Braves: Game Prediction

The Braves match up very well against lefties this season. Suarez hasn’t faced the Braves this season but he’s allowed no more than three runs in any start this season.

Atlanta could be the first team to really pour it on against Suarez. Most teams struggled to find offense early on in the season.

But now some teams are starting to figure out the new ball. The offenses are starting to come alive and the Braves have taken advantage of lefties.

Meanwhile, Charlie Morton has really turned the corner recently. He had a game against the Padres where he struck out nine in mid-May while going six innings and allowing just two hits.

Ultimately, I’d rather trust Morton on the mound and trust the Braves lineup against Suarez, who is a left-handed pitcher.

MLB Betting Pick

The Phillies have faced Charlie Morton 141 times using their roster. With the roster, the Phillies have a .243 batting average against Moroton with an OPS of .761.

Those aren’t terrible stats, but those stats also won’t blow you away. Bryce Harper has a .350 average with a home run in 20 at-bats, but again, Morton should put together a quality outing.

The Braves have the same type of stats against Suarez, with the sample size a lot lower. But ultimately, baseball is a “what have you done now” type of sport.

The Braves are pounding lefties while the Phillies have struggled to even get on base against righties.

Who to Bet On?

Therefore, with my MLB pick, I’m going to grab the Braves Over 2.5 in the first five innings on the team total at +100.

I’m not going to let lefties like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber ruin my day. Let them hit homers if they want to.

I’ll take the Braves to get three runs in the first five innings and not worry about what the Phillies do offensively.

I like the Braves to win this game and believe they will win this game. But the safer bet, in my opinion, is rolling with the Braves to get three runs in the first five innings at even money.

MLB Pick: Over 2.5 First Five Team Total (+100) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.