Phillies vs. Blue Jays Free MLB Picks and Preview

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The Blue Jays squeezed by the Phillies in yesterday’s series opener. Can the Phillies return the favor and tie the two-game series? Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the best sportsbooks!

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Wednesday, July 13, 2022 – 07:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre

Last Night's Recap and What to Expect on Wednesday

Yesterday, the Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Philadelphia Phillies, 4-3, in the first game of the three-game series. 

Recently, there has been a lot of talk about which division is better between the NL East and AL East. Currently, there’s no better matchup to decide this than the Phillies and Blue Jays because both teams have the same exact record of 46-42. 

Will the Phillies add a win tonight and tie the two-game series at one a piece? Here are our MLB picks for tonight’s game between the Phillies and Blue Jays. 

The Pitching Matchup

The Blue Jays will send out right-handed pitcher Ross Stripling for tonight’s game. Stripling is 4-3 with a 3.34 ERA on the season and has been one of the bright spots for the Blue Jays. 

He has had a 3.92 xFIP in the last 30 days with just 5.8% of walks allowed. However, he’s giving up 29% of line drives while inducing under 40% of ground balls. That could get to him eventually.

On the other hand, the Phillies will send out Zack Wheeler. He got snubbed from the All-Star game and currently is 8-4 with a 2.46 ERA on the season. 

In the last 30 days, Wheeler has had a 3.97 xFIP with 23.2% of strikeouts. He’s also limiting walks to 4.8% and has really done well minimizing hard contact.

Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?

The Blue Jays have hit righties well in the last 30 days, accumulating a .189 ISO and a wOBA of .340 with their projected lineup. The Blue Jays are still hitting nearly 45% of grounders and under 21% of line drives but ultimately, have a lineup filled with power. 

Only two batters are hitting below-average power against righties in the last 30 days in the projected lineup for the Phillies. 

Meanwhile, the Phillies don’t have a better lineup, but ultimately have three bats that have more potential than any other player in either lineup. 

Kyle Schwarber is hitting a .395 ISO with a wOBA of .406 against righties in the last 30 days while Rhys Hoskins and Darick Hall have also hit for a high ISO and high wOBA against righties in that same time frame. 

Although Stripling has been worse against righties in the last 30 days, all three of those bats have destroyed righties as of late and that should continue into this game. 

Game Prediction

The Phillies aren’t well-rounded offensively. They’re without Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and Alec Bohm right now. But overall, the top of the lineup has a ton of potential going up against Stripling, who is clearly the worse pitcher between him and Wheeler. 

Stripling has been incredible for the Blue Jays. He’s stepped up for multiple injuries and has given the Blue Jays some big starts. But ultimately, he doesn’t compare to Zack Wheeler. 

Wheeler has had a higher strikeout rate in the last 30 days while also giving up fewer walks. He’s also got a BABIP that is 100 points lower than Stripling’s and has minimized hard contact while Stripling hasn’t.

The Blue Jays might have more power potential in their lineup throughout, but Wheeler he limited power on both sides of the plate very well in the last 30 days. I’d trust Wheeler over Stripling in a pick-em-type game. 

The Pick

So that’s what I’ll do. I’ll back the Phillies, without a bunch of superstars, knowing that Wheeler is more consistent than Stripling. Wheeler has an ERA below 2.50 and should’ve really made the All-Star Game. He’ll have this last start before the break to prove it. 

It kills me as a Mets fan, but give me the Phillies with my MLB Play of the Day. Stripling has been fun to watch as well, but he’s been escaping damage more times than not. 

In the last 30 days, Stripling has had a BABIP of .360 with 45.2% of hard contact and 29% of line drives allowed. His success isn’t going to last much longer. 

MLB Pick: Phillies (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.