Phillies vs. Padres Game 2: NLCS Best Bets for October 19

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Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches against the San Diego Padres. Denis Poroy/Getty Images/AFP.

Can the Philadelphia Phillies earn back-to-back wins on the road to begin the NLCS against the San Diego Padres?

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres

Wednesday, October 19, 2022 – 04:35 PM EDT at Petco Park

What You Should Know

The Philadelphia Phillies escaped San Diego with a win last night, earning a 2-0 win after a dominant performance from Zack Wheeler. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber contributed with home runs and helped lead the way along with Wheeler.

There are no “must-win” games in the second game of a series, but the Padres just lost their first game of the series at home. They can’t afford to lose another and then head out to Philadelphia.

Aaron Nola Will Start for Phillies

The Phillies sent out Zack Wheeler last night. Now they’ll pitch Aaron Nola in today’s game. The Phillies feel like they can earn back-to-back wins with their two aces pitchers and allow them to use their lower-tier pitchers at home.

Nola has a 2.39 xFIP over the last 30 days for the Phillies. He’s struck out over 30% of batters in that time frame and has walked under 5%. He’s allowing over 26% of line drives but most teams are struggling to hit him. Nola rarely gives up extra-base hits and has lowered his wOBA to both sides of the plate to about .200.

He’ll take on a Padres lineup that has hit a .149 ISO and wOBA of .312 over the last 30 days. Only Juan Soto and Manny Machado have been consistent hitting righties over the last 30 days. This lineup has also struck out 25.5% of the time against righties in that month's time frame.

Blake Snell Gets Call for Padres

Meanwhile, it’ll be Blake Snell on the mound for the Padres. He has a 3.53 xFIP over the last 30 days with 33.3% of strikeouts. His walks can get high at 13% and he’s not a high-ground ball pitcher. But he’s limited line drives and has kept hard contact below 23% in the last month.

Snell has allowed a wOBA of .306 to his last 17 lefties but has a wOBA of .232 to his last 91 righties. He’ll face more righties than lefties in the lineup. Although, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber will still be in the lineup despite being lefties, obviously. The Phillies could end up using Edmundo Sosa instead of Bryson Stott or Brandon Marsh. But other than that, the lineup we saw last night will remain the same.

The Phillies are hitting a really low ISO and a wOBA of less than .300 over the last 30 days with their projected lineup. On top of that, the Phillies have struck out 26% of the time against lefties in the last 30 days while walking 8.9% of the time. Only Alec Bohm and Jean Segura have a high wOBA over the last 30 days against lefties.

As a lineup, the Phillies have hit just 16.3% of line drives over the last month against lefties. Snell has, again, limited line drives at a very high rate. Snell figures to have a really good outing if he can locate and keep his command in order.

Pick and Prediction

With all of that said, I think we’re going to see another low-scoring game between two really good pitchers. This game could come down to the bullpens. Nola’s likely going to last longer in this game. Snell’s pitch count tends to rise quicker due to his high walk rate and command issues.

Bryce Harper has a .174 ISO against lefties. Snell has struggled a bit more against lefties. That’s an interesting matchup today. Harper helped break the ice with a home run last night and could do the same in today’s game.

We’re not going to get many runs but I like Nola to last longer and believe the Phillies end up scratching out a win before heading home for Game 3.

If I had to choose one bet over the other, I’d take the Under 6.5 before picking a side. A lot of people are going to bet with the assumption that the Padres won’t lose two games in a row at home in the NLCS. But Aaron Nola isn’t going to be easy to hit, just like Zack Wheeler was difficult last night.

MLB Pick: Phillies (+100) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Phillies (+100)
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MLB Pick: Under 6.5 (+100) at BetOnline

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Under 6.5 (+100)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.