The New York Mets will look to continue their dominance against the Philadelphia Phillies in the first game of a weekend home series. Can the Mets take care of business with Carlos Carrasco on the mound?
Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the BMR’s top-rated books and betting sites!
Friday, May 27, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
- The Philadelphia Phillies earned a much-needed win on Thursday, enhancing their record to 21-24 on the season. They’ll head over to Queens to take on one of the National League’s best, the New York Mets.
- The Mets had a day off last night and were able to recover for this series. So far, the Mets have won each series that they’ve played against the Phillies this season.
Can the Mets continue their momentum against a Phillies club that is below .500 through a quarter of the season? Read on for our betting picks and predictions for Friday's game between the Mets and Phillies.
The Pitching Match-Up
The Phillies have Bailey Falter scheduled for today. Falter doesn’t have a huge sample size in the last 30 days, but in 19 plate appearances, has a 3.61 xFIP with no walks. Falter doesn’t have a huge sample size in the last 30 days, but in 19 plate appearances, has a 3.61 xFIP with no walks.
Still, on the season, Falter is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA and has pitched in five games this season. His WHIP is currently 1.25 and he’s got a career ERA of 5.12 in 27 games.
Meanwhile, Carlos Carrasco will man the mound for the Mets. He’s been surprising this season. If he can get through the first inning, Carrasco really starts to gain momentum. He’s 4-1 with a 3.50 ERA and has an xFIP of 4.74 in the last 30 days.
Carrasco won’t blow any batter away to earn strikeouts but he’s limited power, which has helped him in a big way.
Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?
The Phillies have a .162 ISO and wOBA of .300 in the last 30 days against righties using the projected lineup. Philadelphia’s projected lineup is also striking out 24.9% of the time and walking just 7.3% of the time.
Still, the Phillies limit ground balls and should end up putting the ball in play more frequently against Carrasco.
On the other hand, the Mets have an ISO of .161 and wOBA of .287 against lefties in the last 30 days. Just like the Phillies, New York is striking out 24% of the time while walking 7.4% of the time against lefties.
Both of these lineups are very similar. The team that can get more line drive hits will likely end up winning this game.
Expert MLB Prediction: Phillies vs. Mets
The Mets still have four batters with a high ISO against lefties in the last 30 days. Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar have inflated numbers when it comes to ISO.
New York is also hitting 26.1% of line drives against lefties and knowing that Falter is allowing 26.7% of line drives in the last 30 days, makes you wonder a bit. The Mets can absolutely get some line drive hits off Falter in this one.
Meanwhile, the Phillies have Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Odubel Herrera all hitting a high ISO against righties in the last 30 days. Like Falter, Carrasco is giving up 26.8% of line drives in the last 30 days.
Carrasco is hard to predict and Falter has probably overperformed in his five appearances this season for the Phillies.
There’s potential for both lineups to have success but there’s also reason to believe that both teams struggle early in the first game of a new series.
Score Prediction: Mets 4, Phillies 3
Phillies vs. Mets Betting Pick
With the Mets at home, taking on a Phillies team that will likely enter their bullpen early, I’ll be riding the Mets in tonight’s game.
The Mets line increased once Eflin was moved to tomorrow, but I still think there’s value on the Mets, knowing they’ve won almost every series that they’ve played in this year.
Of course, the Mets haven’t lost to the Phillies in any series this season either. Getting the first win out of the way will be massive.
Therefore, my MLB pick will be the Mets on the moneyline at -150. This isn’t the game to get all fancy. There are a lot of angles that you can take in this game.
MLB Pick: New York Mets ML (-150) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.