Phillies vs. Cardinals MLB Odds, Preview and Pick

profile image of Willie.Bee

We’re heading to St. Louis for a free MLB pick in Monday’s series finale between the Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies that finds a couple of hard-luck hurlers squaring off on the Busch bump.

It has become rare for teams to begin a series on Friday and still be going at it on Monday, but that’s just what we have to begin the week in St. Louis where the Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies close out a good old-fashioned wraparound series.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Monday, July 11, 2022 – 07:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium

Phillies vs. Cardinals: Starting Pitchers

St. Louis has the opportunity to salvage a split in the set in a Monday matchup of hurlers who have pitched better than their records show, Aaron Nola (5-6, 3.15) and Miles Mikolas (5-7, 2.72).

The moneylines are tight with the Philadelphia slightly favored and scoreboard bettors facing a decision on a 7½-run target.


Series Highlights So Far

The Cardinals couldn’t even get on the MLB scoreboard in the first two games of the series as the Phillies came out on top in a pair of good old-fashioned pitching duels. Aided by an Albert Pujols homer, St. Louis rallied for a 4-3 triumph on Sunday.

  • All three games stayed ‘Under’ totals that closed 8-8½.
  • When the Phillies won 2 of 3 in Philadelphia the previous weekend, 2 of those games also stopped short in the totals column.
  • Going back to 2018, the ‘Under’ has cashed 9 of the last 11 meetings at Busch Stadium.

Pitchers Analysis

Aaron Nola

Philadelphia batters have had a feast or famine approach – and it has been the latter far more frequently than the former – when Nola takes the mound this season, with the lineup blanked in three of his assignments and averaging about a third of a run less than the season clip in his outings.

That offensive impotence led to a horrible 8-game stretch of losses for the Phillies in Nola’s assignments and has the club 7-10 (-6.25 units) on his day to pitch after dropping a 3-2 decision to the Nationals last Wednesday as hefty chalk at top-rated sportsbooks.

Nola didn’t see his turn come up when the Phillies hosted the Cardinals last week. The former LSU standout faced the Cardinals twice a season ago, drawing a no-decision in St. Louis (6 IP, 3 ER) and tossing a gem with a 2-hit, 10-K performance in a complete game shutout at Philly.

Miles Mikolas

Mikolas knows all about fickle lineups and run support. St. Louis is 9-8 when he takes the mound, with four of the losses the result of the Cardinals being blanked. The Florida native owns a 3.30 ERA while the Redbirds tallied just 7 runs combined in the 8 defeats.

In his start last Wednesday in Atlanta, Mikolas went 6 and allowed 3 runs – 2 of those runs on back-to-back homers by Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario – as the Cardinals went silent in a 3-0 setback as +145 underdogs at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).

Prior to that, Mikolas didn’t get much help from either his offense or defense in a 5-3 loss in Philadelphia (5.1 IP, 4 R, 2 ER). That was his first start against the Phillies since beating them at home in May 2019, and Mikolas is 2-2 with a 2.60 ERA in 8 assignments at Busch this year.


Who Is the Umpire Today?

John Bacon will be the umpire calling balls and strikes in the series finale. The rover is in just his fourth season at the major league level and has just 28 previous plate assignments to his credit. Bacon’s 7 dish assignments this year have split the MLB odds at 3-3-1 O/U/P.


Phillies vs. Cardinals: Injuries Update

Though it might not be as long as the novel War and Peace, the MLB injury list for these two teams is still pretty extensive.

Philadelphia Phillies

The biggest name missing for Philadelphia is reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper who isn’t expected back until late August – at the earliest – due to a thumb injury.

St. Louis Cardinals

Dylan Carlson did not start Sunday’s game due to a sore right knee, though it apparently wasn’t sore enough to keep him from pinch-running for Pujols in the eighth inning, and Brendan Donovan missed the last two games for St. Louis due to an undisclosed illness. Both are listed as day-to-day.


MLB Betting Pick for Today

Philadelphia and St. Louis are very similar statistically, and also similar in my general assessment as a couple of teams that have been vastly underachieving in 2022.

This one screams out for a play on the ‘Under,’ and that’s what I’m going to do.

MLB Pick: Under 7½ (-103) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Heritage Sports logo
Under 7½ (-103)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.