Phillies vs. Braves MLB Odds, Preview and Pick

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Kyle Wright #30 of the Atlanta Braves pitches against the Cincinnati Reds at Truist Park. Adam Hagy/Getty Images/AFP.

The first of six series this season between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves draws to a close on Thursday night, and we’ve got you covered with a free MLB pick for the clash.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves

Thursday, May 26, 2022 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park

Phillies vs. Braves: The Matchup

Today's Pitchers

Both sides are trying to keep New York in their sights as the Braves and Phillies close out their first series of the season with Aaron Nola (1-4, 3.96) and Kyle Wright (4-2, 2.49) listed as the probable pitchers.

Sportsbooks Favorite

Atlanta opened -118 on the moneyline, and that is down about a nickel following overnight trading while an 8-run total carries a little extra juice on the ‘Under.’

Historic Rivalry

Baseball has become boring to yours truly thanks to a propensity for home runs, strikeouts, and walks, but there’s still something to be said for the nostalgia and excitement generated by old rivalries like the one between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves whose matchups are always worth the price of admission regardless of the standings.

Series Recap

After splitting the first two games of the long set, Philadelphia prevailing 7-3 on Monday and Atlanta evening things with a 6-5 decision on Tuesday, the Braves posted an 8-4 decision on the MLB scoreboard in Wednesday’s tussle behind a big 4-hit effort at the plate by Dansby Swanson and excellent relief from Spencer Strider.

All three games breached the totals, and both sides lean a little to the ‘Over’ on the season with the Phillies running 22-19-3 O/U/P while the Braves sit 25-16-3 in the same columns. The Braves went 7-2 in the rivalry at home last season with totals of 6-3 O/U.

Maybe the best news is that since this is the first time the Phillies and Braves are getting together, there are plenty more meetings left on the fixture and at least one of the clubs will have drawn a little closer to the Mets in the division race by the time Atlanta visits Philadelphia in late-June.

Aaron Nola Analysis

May started well for Nola with 7 innings of 1-run baseball against the Mets. Granted, the Phillies ultimately lost the game when Philadelphia’s bullpen imploded in the ninth inning for an 8-7 loss as -150 chalk at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).

That was one of eight consecutive starts by Nola that Philadelphia went down in defeat, and the last three have found the former first-round pick out of LSU going a bit sideways with 17.2 innings of work and 10 earned runs allowed (5.09 ERA).

Nola faced the Braves five times last season with Philadelphia going 2-3 in those matchups, and he dropped both assignments in Atlanta while tossing a combined 10 innings and allowing 8 earned runs, including a pair of homers.

Kyle Wright Analysis

A former first-round pick himself after being taken No. 5 overall out of Vanderbilt in 2017, Wright was also dealing with a mini losing streak that stood at three for Atlanta before he grabbed the dubya with 5 shutout innings last Saturday in Miami, the Braves ultimately holding on for a 4-3 triumph as -145 chalk on the MLB odds.

Wright allowed 12 earned runs in his previous three starts (17 IP) before finding his mark against the Marlins, and he is facing the Phillies for the first time since August 2020 when a couple of big flies caused the damage in a 5-0 defeat at Citizens Bank Park.

Home cooking has been the best recipe for Wright’s success this season. The 26-year-old is limiting opposing hitters to a puny .179 batting average at Truist Park where the Braves have won three of Wright’s five assignments.

Who Will Be the Umpire?

Chad Whitson will be the umpire for this game. Now in his ninth season umpiring games at the major league level, Whitson has called balls and strikes eight times in the 2022 season and amassed a strong lean to the ‘Under’ at top-rated sportsbooks and betting sites with a 1-6-1 O/U/P record.

The Dublin, Ohio native has been notoriously neutral in the past when it comes to totals, fashioning a dead-level 35-35 O/U record from 2019-21, though Whitson stands 5-1 O/U working the dish in Atlanta over his career.

Phillies vs. Braves: Weather Forecast

The weatherman is calling for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day and into the early evening when it should be in the upper-60s at first pitch with an 8-10 southerly breeze (in from right).

This might be a good game to have the rain poncho concession at Truist Park.

MLB Betting Pick

Assuming the two sides can play through the raindrops, my play will be on Atlanta to come out on top in a 5-3 final.

MLB Pick: Braves ML (-112) at BetOnline

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Braves ML (-112)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.