Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. The World Series, between the Phillies and Astros, starts today. Game 1 will take place in Houston.
The starting pitcher matchups for this game have been released: Justin Verlander starts for the Astros and Aaron Nola for the Phillies.
Verlander’s Astros are heavily favored to win tonight’s game. BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), for example, has the Astros ML at -167.
Whether favoring Houston so heavily is justified is a question worth exploring. In line with the answer to this question, here are the best prop bets worth investing in for tonight’s game.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros
Friday, October 28, 2022 – 08:03 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
Phillies Prop Bet: Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola's Bounce-Back Spot
Phillies' starter Aaron Nola is in a strong spot today because he is coming off a terrible start. He reliably bounces back positively after suffering such a start.
To be exact, he has allowed zero runs or one run in his last six starts that followed one in which he conceded 4 or more runs.
His success in bounce-back games has persisted against strong competition. In such a spot, he locked down Atlanta, for example, allowing zero runs over six innings to the NL East champions.
Most recently, in a bounce-back spot, he shut out the Astros in 6.2 innings. He even had a perfect game in play in the seventh inning.
Nola's superb outing against Houston took place on October 3. That start initiated a streak of three outings in which he allowed zero runs.
He allowed zero earned runs against the Astros before allowing zero to St. Louis and then Atlanta, although the Braves had faced him many times before because they play in the same division as Nola's Phillies.
His last start notwithstanding, Nola is a consistently excellent pitcher even against playoff-caliber competition, and this fact alone makes it ridiculous of oddsmakers to have Houston favored so heavily in this game.
Over 16.5 Outs
There are multiple player prop opportunities that we can take advantage of in order to express our confidence in Nola's outlook tonight. One is, at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), the following: Total Pitching Outs - Aaron Nola.
For this bet, you must choose whether Nola will record more or less than 16.5 outs. Given the above information, I like the "Over," meaning that I think Nola will record more than 16.5 outs.
In order for this bet to hit, Nola tonight will need to endure at least 5.2 innings, which he has done in six of his past seven starts.
Under 1.5 Earned Runs
The second bet that I recommend placing follows from the above information. Nola's great form and his bounce-back situation will enable him to severely limit Houston's scoring output.
Therefore, I recommend investing in Nola to allow one earned run or fewer. The bet at Bovada is titled: Total Earned Runs - Aaron Nola
MLB Prop Pick: Aaron Nola Over 16.5 Outs (-125) at Bovada
MLB Prop Pick: Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+105) at Bovada
Phillies Prop Bet: Bryce Harper
2+ Total Bases
For this bet to hit, the player we invest in will need to record 2 or more total bases. A single amounts to one base, a double to two bases, and so forth. So, we will need this player to achieve two singles, a double, or a triple, and so on.
I find Philly slugger Bryce Harper attractively priced at +110. Harper is enjoying top-notch form in this postseason. To be exact, he is batting .419 and slugging .907.
Over 25% of his at-bats have resulted in an extra-base hit, which creates solid hope for his outlook tonight.
Harper Against Verlander
There is a reasonable chance that Harper faces Houston's starting pitcher more often than any other Astros' pitcher, so Harper's chances against Verlander are particularly relevant to this prop bet.
I like Harper to record two or more total bases because, not only is he hot, but he enjoys a history against Verlander that, despite its small data sample, offers promise. Harper is 2-for-5 in his career against the Houston starter.
In the regular season, Harper slugged .800 against the fastball from righties. This fact is meaningful because the fastball is easily Verlander's favorite pitch. He throws it 50.4% of the time. But know for your MLB picks that his dependence on this pitch will cost him against Harper.
MLB Prop Pick: Bryce Harper to Record 2+ Total Bases (+110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.