With April now in our rearview mirror, it’s time to examine what the experts got right, and what they got wrong about who would contend for the American League and National League pennants. Where is the betting value now that May is upon us?
- Atlanta (+550) is the top favorite to win the World Series entering May.
- Houston (+700) is the favorite to repeat in the AL.
- Some teams have barely scratched the surface of their division schedules.
It’s never an easy task to look into the future and handicap a baseball season before it begins, and it was made even more difficult this year by the introduction of new rules like the pitch timer, shift ban, and larger bases on the infield.
One more change was the balanced schedule that finds all 30 teams playing each other, only it really hasn’t been so balanced to date with a few clubs having an interleague-heavy April, and knowing who is left on a team’s schedule is a huge factor in contemplating MLB futures play.
Astros Still Favored to Repeat in AL
Defending champ Houston was a heavy favorite to win the AL West and a consensus to fly another American League pennant. The Astros are still on the top line in the AL with a +700 price at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), and after a slow start, they’re 2-games back in the division.
On top of the AL West are the Texas Rangers who are scoring runs left and right. They’re getting a +2000 payback currently to win the Series. It’s a dangerous offense, but with Jacob deGrom already on the injured list, the pitching staff is a question mark.
Seattle was picked more times than not to finish behind Houston in the AL West, but the Mariners have dropped back to +2500, or just ahead of the Angels (+2800). They have played just one series (3 games) against division foes while playing 15 games against NL clubs.
Can Rays Sustain April Pace?
It was a great April for Tampa Bay, and the Rays are trailing Houston on the AL board at +800 while the Yankees are +1000. Is now the right time to buy in on a New York turnaround?
Minnesota (+2500) isn’t getting much respect for a team that is clearly the class of the AL Central. One of the most pleasant surprises in the American League has been the Baltimore Orioles, up more than 6 units at top sportsbooks and a very fat +8000 to win it all.
Chop House Special in Atlanta
They don’t have the best record in the National League, nor the biggest run differential in the Senior Circuit, but they’ve got the stingiest pitching staff and that is why the Atlanta Braves are on the tip-top line at BetOnline with a +550 price to win the World Series.
The Mets (+1100) are about to make big changes to their pitching rotation with Max Scherzer due back from his sticky suspension and Justin Verlander about to make his Big Apple debut.
Changes are coming to Philadelphia’s roster as well, or should I say change since Bryce Harper will reportedly make his season debut this week. The lineup has been anemic without his bat plus Rhys Hoskins, who was lost for the season due to a Spring Training knee injury.
Your 2023 NL Champs… Pittsburgh?
The team with the best record and biggest run differential through April 30th in the National League? That would be the Pittsburgh Pirates.
It has been a great story so far, but the consensus is it’s only an illusion in Iron City. Pittsburgh is 55/1 to win it all, but gaining respect to at least make the October baseball scene.
Milwaukee is as heavy a favorite in the NL Central as the MLB odds have Houston in the AL West, to give you an idea of how the division looks. At +1800 to win the World Series, the Brewers are drawing the biggest return of any current division favorite.
If the Pirates are the most pleasant surprise so far this season, then the Cardinals almost have to be the biggest disappointment, at least in the NL. St. Louis was a preseason pick to contend for the division crown but had the 2nd-worst record in the NL entering May.
Bums & Friars Heating Up
Along with everyone expecting Pittsburgh to tail off, the general feeling is the Dodgers and Padres will eventually slug it out in the NL West. They have yet to meet on the diamond, and those matchups will surely draw a lot of interest from bettors.
The fly in the ointment, as it were, out West has been Arizona. The Diamondbacks have made up for a lack of power with a fast lineup full of gap hitters. In the end, Los Angeles and San Diego are the top MLB picks in the division.
MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays (+350) at BetOnline
MLB Pick: New York Mets (+550) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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