Padres vs. Mets MLB Predictions for July 22

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The New York Mets will look to hold their lead in the NL East with a three-game series against the San Diego Padres. The Padres have a terrific pitching staff and will keep the Mets off-balanced.

Can the Mets’ pitching staff do the same to the Padres? Here’s a look at the first game of the series. Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the best sportsbooks!

San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets

Friday, July 22, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field

The Story So Far

The New York Mets will welcome the San Diego Padres to Flushing for a three-game series to start off the second half of the season. 

The Mets currently lead in the NL East by a couple of games while the San Diego Padres are currently sliding down the NL West, just like last season.

However, the Padres have still played much better baseball in comparison to last season and will get back the best trade-deadline piece in baseball. By that I mean, they’ll get Fernando Tatis Jr. back on the diamond eventually and that should help them reach the playoffs.

Anyway, here are our MLB picks and predictions for tonight’s game between the Mets and Padres. 

The Pitching Matchup

The New York Mets will send out Max Scherzer, who has looked incredible since returning from injury. On the year, Scherzer has a 6-1 record with a 2.22 ERA on the season.

In the last 30 days, Scherzer has a 2.36 xFIP with over 43% of strikeouts and just 1.4% of walks. 

When balls are batted into play, Scherzer tends to give up a lot of line drives, but teams have to hit him before we worry about that anyway. 

Meanwhile, Yu Darvish will take the mound for the Padres. He’s 8-4 with a 3.41 ERA on the season. In the last 30 days, Darvish is holding a 3.94 xFIP but has also earned nearly 32% of strikeouts in that time frame. 

Darvish, like Scherzer, has limited walks but gives up plenty of fly balls when balls are batted into play.

Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?

The Mets have plenty of power in their lineup against righties. In the last 30 days, five Mets batters are hitting an ISO of at least .185 against righties. However, only three betters have a wOBA of .335 or better in the lineup in those 30 days. 

The Mets rarely earn walks but have limited strikeouts to under 20% in the last 30 days against righties. This team is also hitting 24.4% of line drives against righties in the last 30 days. 

On the other hand, the Padres have less power and about the same weighted on-base average. San Diego has hit a .136 ISO against righties in the last 30 days and have a .296 wOBA as a projected lineup. 

The bottom half of the Padres’ order has been weak for San Diego and that portion of the lineup is bringing this team down.

Game Prediction

At this point, it’s pretty obvious that both teams need to get some help before the Trade Deadline. Both starting rotations will work out but both teams need more bats in their lineups. 

The Padres will eventually get Fernando Tatis Jr. back, but that won’t help the bottom portion of the lineup very much. 

Scherzer should be able to get through the bottom half of the order with ease. In the top of the order, the only notable hitter against righties has been Jake Cronenworth, as he’s averaging a .235 ISO and wOBA of .360. Other than that, the Padres lack potential against righties. 

The Mets have more extra-base potential going up against Darvish. However, the Mets have higher strikeouts in comparison and have already struggled with Darvish earlier this season. 

New York has just two players earning at least 8% walks and the middle of the order is striking out at a very high rate against righties in the last 30 days. 

Neither lineup check out against these two aces tonight

The Pick

You can probably guess where I’m going with in this game. The Under makes the most sense between Scherzer and Darvish tonight. 

Both of these pitchers are earning high strikeouts and limiting walks. Both pitchers will also take on lineups that have performed below average in the last 30 days. 

Therefore, with my MLB Play of the Day, I’m going to take the Under 7 between Scherzer and Darvish. 

MLB Pick: Under 7 (-115) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 7 (-115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.