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Padres vs. Mets: Hard Tack

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Padres vs. Mets: Hard Tack
Manny Machado #13 of the San Diego Padres on June 09, 2021. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images/AFP

With a tiny total of 5.5 runs, the Over must be the right MLB Pick for Friday’s matchup between the San Diego Padres and New York Mets.

San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets

Friday 11th June 2021 7:10 PM EDT at Citi Field

Pine tar this, Spider Tack that. All of a sudden, people are up in arms over pitchers using foreign substances to impart greater spin rate on their pitches, making them much more difficult to hit.

Where was all of this chatter two years ago, when Trevor Bauer exposed the business? Anyway, Major League Baseball is reportedly on the verge of cracking down, which means we can expect many (but not all) pitchers to scale back their use of the sticky stuff before they get caught and punished.

Ironically, that means it’s time for us to… buy the dip. The Over should have some legs going forward, including Friday’s matchup between the San Diego Padres and New York Mets, where the total opened at six runs (!) on the MLB odds board at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).

Sliding Sports

You read that right: Six runs, exclamation point. It’s almost a moral imperative to bet the other side, even if the two projected starters are Cy Young winners – Blake Snell (3.94 FIP) for the Padres, and Jacob deGrom (1.02 FIP) for the Mets. Sweet baby corn, that’s a low FIP for deGrom.

'But it is higher than his 0.62 ERA, thanks in part to a puny .218 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) and a massive 90.3 percent of runners left stranded. So let’s talk about spin rate.

Baseball Savant is the website all the cool kids are consulting for this stat, and deGrom is their No. 3 trending search, behind Gerrit Cole (you may have seen his interview recently) and Shohei Ohtani – Bauer is next on the list.

The spin rate on deGrom’s assortment of pitches has indeed gone up considerably since 2018, especially on his slider, which has become near-unhittable. Snell’s spin rate is up, too, although not as dramatically; however, like deGrom, Snell is using his slider a lot more now than his curveball. Mmmmm… sliders.

Score The Baseball

Of course, we don’t have the inside information here at the ranch to tell you whether deGrom and Snell are going to put away the pine tar Friday, or at least keep it less obvious. But we’re not going to bother recommending the moneyline for your MLB Picks.

FiveThirtyEight project New York to win 59 percent of the time, which translates to a fair moneyline of –144 using the incorruptible BMR Odds Converter. The Padres are +143 road dogs at Bookmaker, so there’s no real profit margin there.

That total, though, has shrunk to 5.5 runs at BetOnline as I write this. Granted, that’s with –120 juice, so it’s not much of a line shift from 6 (+105). And Friday’s weather report calls for mostly cloudy skies over Citi Field (a pitcher’s park) with around 75-percent humidity at game time.

And these are two of the best bullpens in the majors – New York’s being first overall at 3.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) according to FanGraphs. Fine, we’ll make it a small bet, but we’re still taking the Over. It’s just the right thing to do.

MLB Pick: Over 5.5 (–120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Over 5.5 (–120)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.