The San Diego Padres revamped their team at the trade deadline to compete against teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers.
It hasn’t worked over the weekend. However, the Padres will look to salvage the three-game series with at least one win. Can the Padres get the job done tonight on ESPN?
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, August 07, 2022 – 07:08 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The San Diego Padres might’ve added a bunch of new pieces to their team. However, it hasn’t really worked in their favor just yet.
The Dodgers defeated the Padres, 8-3, in the second game of a three-game series. The Dodgers just won another divisional series and continue to prove that they’re the best in the National League.
The Padres will bring back Fernando Tatis Jr. soon and will get better as the season progresses into September. But for now, the Dodgers have owned the Padres.
Will that stretch of dominance continue into tonight’s game? Here are our MLB picks and predictions for the Dodgers and Padres on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball telecast.
The Pitching Match-Up
The Padres will pitch Yu Darvish for tonight’s game. He’s 10-4 with a 3.30 ERA on the season. Basically, he’s exactly what the Padres need right now if they’re going to salvage this series against the Dodgers.
Darvish has a 3.63 xFIP in the last 30 days with 31.3% of strikeouts. He’s also limited walks to 6%.
Against righties, Darvish has struggled a bit, allowing a .335 wOBA and ISO of .200 in his last 53 plate appearances against them. However, overall, he’s been very good for the Padres this season and probably a bit under the radar this year.
On the flip side, Tyler Anderson will get the call for the Dodgers. Anderson is 12-1 with a 2.89 ERA on the year. It’s amazing what the Dodgers can do to a pitcher.
Anderson was an average pitcher before heading over to Los Angeles. Now he’s 12-1 on the season with an ERA below 3.
Anderson still has a 5.01 xFIP in the last 30 days with just 17.5% of strikeouts. However, he’s limited wOBA and ISO numbers to both sides of the plate in the last 30 days. That’s what has kept him afloat.
Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?
The Padres are hitting an ISO of .193 with a wOBA of .369 against lefties in the last 30 days. New additions like Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Brandon Drury have been massive left-handed killers this season and figure to do damage in tonight’s game.
The Padres have also walked 12.9% of the time against lefties in the last 30 days with their projected lineup and have hit 27.2% of line drives.
The Padres look really good against Anderson, except for the fact that Anderson has limited power recently.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers have hit righties just as well, hitting a .210 ISO with a wOBA of .357 in the last 30 days. The Dodgers have a ton of lefties towards the bottom of the order that could be a problem against most righties.
However, Darvish, as I said earlier, has struggled more against righties. He’s got Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Will Smith to worry about. The rest of the lineup is lefty.
Both lineups look really good every day against any pitcher. That’s a given. But Darvish matches up better against the Dodgers than Anderson does against the Padres.
Lefties are hitting a .197 ISO and wOBA of .081 against Darvish in their last 81 plate appearances. That’s a solid sample size for Darvish, where he’s done very well limiting lefties in the last month.
On the flip side, Anderson is likely going to allow more balls in play. Ultimately, when you do that, you’re giving the other team more opportunities to make plays and score runs.
The Padres are hitting way more line drives against lefties and continue to limit grounded balls against them as well. Anderson isn’t a heavy ground ball pitcher and also isn’t earning a high amount of strikeouts.
This could be the game where the Padres figure things out on the offensive end.
Our Betting Pick
The Padres are underdogs, sitting at +120 on the road, for tonight’s ESPN telecast.
The Dodgers have owned the Padres throughout the season but it won’t feel right if the Padres get swept by the Dodgers in a three-game series after all the new acquisitions they made.
The Padres match up better in this game. With my MLB Play of the Day, I’m on the Padres at +120. There’s plenty of value here.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.