Padres vs. Dodgers MLB Preview and Free Pick

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Starting pitcher Blake Snell #4 of the San Diego Padres throws against the Colorado Rockies. Matthew Stockman/Getty Images/AFP

The Over hasn’t been a strong MLB pick lately, but it might be the right choice for Friday’s San Diego Padres-Los Angeles Dodgers tilt.

San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Friday, July 1, 2022 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium

Weather Forecast for Today

To answer Michael Stipe’s musical question, yes, yes we should talk about the weather. Now that summer’s been with us for well over a week, it feels like it’s been here forever.

It’s piping hot pretty much everywhere you go. While our bodies adjust, so do the MLB odds.

Over Might Be the Right Pick

The Over had a nice run there while the weather was transitioning from spring to summer – but that run appears to be finished, with the Under cashing in at 44-38 (53.7 percent) during the seven days leading up to press time.

The Over might still be the right MLB pick for Friday’s matchup between the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Weather in Chavez Ravine

The forecast calls for clear skies over Chavez Ravine and temperatures in the mid-70s, warm enough to add some extra oomph to those long flys.

They’re also calling for winds around 5-10 miles per hour blowing out towards centerfield. And there’s a low, low total of 7.5 runs on the board at Heritage Sports. We’ve got most of the ingredients for our Over recipe right there.

Margins on Straight Bets

With the margins on straight bets:

  • run line
  • moneyline
  • total

Are getting smaller and smaller, keeping track of the weather conditions is a moral imperative when you’re betting on baseball.

The most important thing aside from altitude is the temperature; hotter air is thinner air, allowing the ball to travel farther through it.

Humidity Is Bad for Home Runs

Humidity is a bit of a mixed bag. I have said here in this space that more humidity is worse for home runs – because the balls trap moisture and get heavier.

Every ballpark in the majors is using a humidor now to store those Rawlingses, so that’s going to keep runs lower as well.

One problem with that logic, though: Humidity also makes the air thinner, not thicker. I know, it’s counter-intuitive, but as it turns out, water vapor is lighter than nitrogen and oxygen. So you have a push-pull dynamic here when it comes to betting MLB totals.

Good News

The good news is that humidity (and barometric pressure) are much less of a concern than air temperature, so we can basically ignore them for our purposes and focus on what matters most: heat and wind, which are both pointing towards the Over in Friday’s contest.

Dodger Stadium: A Pitcher’s Park

Maybe not the way it used to be. You’ve still got a lot of foul ground to cover at Chavez Ravine, but that territory was trimmed quite a bit after the 2004 campaign. Plus, the outfield walls in each corner are less than four feet tall.

And they’re literally in a ravine, so that increasingly warm L.A. air tends to be still inside the stadium bowl, and easier for baseballs to travel through.

Let’s take a look at ESPN’s park factors for Dodger Stadium over the past five years, looking specifically at runs (1.000 being average for this index):

  • 2022: 1.080
  • 2021: 0.954
  • 2020: 0.938
  • 2019: 0.905
  • 2018: 0.872

I see a trend here. And wouldn’t you know it, the Over is 15-13 in Los Angeles this year, compared to 14-24 when the Dodgers are on the road (pushes not included). Climate change: It’s what’s for dinner.

Tony Gonsolin Analysis

He sure looks pretty good. Gonsolin's 1.58 ERA and 0.851 WHIP are easily topped in this rotation, and the Dodgers are 11-3 in his 14 starts with the Under at 10-4. Not ideal for our purposes.

Look a bit more closely, though, and you’ll see that Gonsolin also has a .188 BABIP allowed, which helps explain the gap between his ERA and his 3.79 xFIP.

Gonsolin has also seen 90.3 percent of his runners stranded thus far. Both those peripheral stats are prone to regression.

Blake Snell Analysis

Meanwhile, the Padres are supposed to start Blake Snell (4.34 xFIP) on Friday, and while his 5.60 ERA has been inflated by circumstances largely out of his control, Snell has yet to show the Padres the same form that led to his Cy Young Award with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018.

The struggle is real. Snell has made just seven starts this year, and the Padres lost them all, with the Under going 6-1.

MLB Betting Prediction

Again, not great for us, but we’re counting on San Diego’s improved hitting to carry the day; they’ve moved up from No. 11 on the season to No. 4 over the past month on the FanGraphs WAR charts. We’ll buy that for a dollar.

MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-113) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Over 7.5 (-113)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.