Padres vs. Mets Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Free Pick

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The New York Mets will look to avoid a three-game sweep against the San Diego Padres, at home. The Mets haven’t lost four straight games all year but are in danger of doing that tonight. Can Carlos Carrasco get the Mets back in the win column in tonight’s matchup?

Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!

San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets

Sunday, July 24, 2022, 07:00 PM EDT at Citi Field

The New York Mets have dropped two straight games to the San Diego Padres, at home, to begin the second half of the season. The Mets clearly lack hitting right now but the pitching has held up.

Meanwhile, the Padres haven’t hit all that well either but are just getting a couple more timely hits to get by. Here are our picks and predictions for tonight’s game which will be an ESPN telecast.

The Pitching Match-Up

Carlos Carrasco will take the hill for the Mets tonight. He has a 10-4 record with a 4.27 ERA on the season. He’s been very good throughout the year but has had some bumps in the road. When he’s pitching poorly, he’s usually getting torched. When he’s pitching well, he’s usually allowing very few runs.

In the last 30 days, Carrasco has had a 3.80 xFIP with 25.6% of strikeouts. Walks are getting a bit high for Carrasco, but he’s still earning 51.7% of ground balls, which has helped him escape damage.

All-Star Joe Musgrove

On the other hand, Joe Musgrove will get the start for the Padres. He’s coming off an All-Star appearance and is 8-2 with a 2.42 ERA on the year.

In the last 30 days, the right-hander has had an xFIP of 4.45 with 20.4% of strikeouts. He hasn’t been all that great in the last month of baseball analytically. He’s literally given up 54.1% of hard contact in those 30 days.

Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?

The New York Mets added Daniel Vogelbach in a trade with the Pirates. The Mets added him for games like today. Vogelbach has a .357 ISO and wOBA of .453 in his last 54 plate appearances against righties. Only Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor have a high ISO and wOBA against righties in the lineup, other than Vogelbach.

He should truly help against righties for the Mets. With Vogelbach in the lineup, collectively, the Mets have a .162 ISO and wOBA of .300. Without him, this number is much lower.

Meanwhile, the Padres are hitting a .135 ISO and wOBA of .290 in the last 30 days against righties. Jake Cronenworth and Luke Voit have been the two consistent power hitters against righties. Other than that, there’s nothing to rave about with the Padres lineup.

Game Prediction

The Padres could earn a high amount of walks and the top of the order rarely hits ground balls, which is good news. Carrasco has struggled against lefties more, giving up a .390 wOBA and ISO of .250 in the last 30 days. The Padres will likely have five lefties in the lineup, but only Cronenworth has hit righties at a solid rate.

On the other hand, Musgrove has been dodging a ton of bullets lately, while giving up a .273 ISO to righties. All of the Mets’ consistent, big hitters are coming from the left side. However, Pete Alonso and Starling Marte are currently two righties that could have some success against Musgrove.

Carrasco Playing Better Than Musgrove

New York has hit 25% of line drives against righties in the last 30 days and have limited ground balls to 41.6%. Musgrove is usually a strikeout pitcher, but he’s lacked in that department recently, which could also help the Mets tack on some runs in this game.

On top of that, Musgrove is giving up 25.7% of line drives in the last 30 days while only inducing 40.5% of ground balls. The reality is, that Musgrove has been worse than Carrasco in the last 30 days on the mound. Plus, the Mets have the better lineup in terms of averages in the last 30 days.

The Pick

It’s hard to sweep the Mets. New York has had the tying run at the plate in each of the first two games that they lost in the ninth inning. The Mets aren’t getting blown out. They just need more offense.

They’ll get some tonight. With my MLB Pick of the Day, take the Mets as the -120 favorites.

MLB Pick: Mets ML (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Mets ML (-120)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.