Padres vs. Mets NL Wild Card Game 3 Best Bets

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Manny Machado #13 of the San Diego Padres reacts to a called strike ahead of Tomas Nido #3 of the New York Mets during the 5th inning in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series at Citi Field on October 08, 2022. Elsa/Getty Images/AFP

The top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s Wild Card round action. Although their is only one game being played today — between the Padres and Mets — it is still worth investing in.

This series is tied at one game a piece, so today’s meeting will determine which team advances to play the Dodgers. For reasons that I will explain, you should play both spread and total for the first five innings.

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San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets

Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 07:07 PM EDT at Citi Field

Who Starts for the Mets?

Chris Bassitt starts for New York today. Bassitt is surely thrilled to return to New York after his last start, which took place on the road in Atlanta, was awful. It would be just like him, though, to bounce back tonight with a solid start at home.

During the regular season, he was unequivocally stronger when he got to pitch in front of the Met faithful. Whereas his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) on the road was 4.20, his FIP at home was an excellent 3.20.

Bounce-Back Spot

Today's situation positions Bassitt to excel in this game for two more reasons. One reason is that he tends to be excellent when he's coming off a terrible outing.

For example, he allowed five runs to the Cubs on September 12 before shutting down Pittsburgh over the course of six innings in his following start.

More convincingly, he allowed two runs to the Dodgers on September 2 after conceding four runs to the Rockies in his previous start. This pattern, of thriving after struggling, has repeated itself numerous times in Bassitt's season.

Rest

Furthermore, Bassitt is in a positive situation today because he enters this game uniquely well-rested. Having last pitched on October 2, he has rested for the past six days.

In his career, he boasts a 2.95 ERA when he is pitching off six or more days of rest. Therefore, in terms of rest, he is in his ideal situation.

Bassitt vs. Padres' Batters in the Regular Season

Bassitt has faced the Padres twice so far -- once in San Diego and a second time in New York.

He first faced them in San Diego. In this game, he allowed a lot of runs. However, his 1.31 FIP in that start reflects how well he actually pitched. The fact that he didn't allow any hard contact reinforces this insight. He was simply unfortunate to yield such a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).

Bassitt did get to show as clearly as possible that he can lock down the Padre lineup. Soon after this initial disappointment in San Diego, he faced the Padres at home.

In this most recent start against San Diego in New York, Bassitt allowed two runs in seven innings.

Bassitt's Matchup Outlook

One should expect Bassitt to perform well against Padre batters because he matches up well against them in view of the pitches that he throws.

He owns a nice degree of variety in his pitching arsenal. Primarily, he favors a

  • Sinker
  • Cutter
  • Slider
  • Curveball
  • Fastball

These pitches combine to make up 93.9 percent of his arsenal. Padres' batters rank well below average in slugging against these pitches from righties.

Who Starts for San Diego Today?

Joe Musgrove starts for the Padres today. Musgrove could not be pitching more effectively right now.

His consistent success in his most recent starts reveals the strength of his current form. Specifically, he has shut out his last two opponents while lasting five innings and six innings in those two starts, respectively. Furthermore, Musgrove has allowed a combined total of one run in his past four starts.

Musgrove's Outlook Today

Crucially, Musgrove's success has persisted even against strong competition and against teams that match up well against him.

For example, his second-to-last victim was the mighty Dodgers. Musgrove is thriving with his pitching repertoire. Favoring a slider, fastball, cutter, and curveball, he doesn't throw a single pitch with as much as 25% frequency. The balance in his arsenal allows him to remain unpredictable with his pitch selection.

Crucially, he commands all of these pitches well and effectively, such that batters lack a reason to hope to encounter any particular one. Hitters bat less than .230 against all four of these pitches that make up close to 90 percent of his arsenal.

Padres vs. Mets Best Bets

In view of this excellent pitching matchup, we should expect a low-scoring and highly competitive pitcher's duel. Given this expectation, the best way to approach this game is to play the first five innings under with your MLB picks.

While this total play is my favorite bet for this game, I also think that we can take advantage of the odds for this game.

The Mets, I believe, are favored too strongly. Thus, I also recommend the Padres' first-half run line, which comes at an attractive price.

MLB Pick: Under 3.5 First-Five Innings (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

MLB Pick: First Five Innings Padres RL +0.5 (-130) at BetOnline

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.