Orioles vs. White Sox MLB Free Picks and Preview

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Johnny Cueto #47 of the Chicago White Sox pitches during the 1st inning of the game against the Kansas City Royals. Jamie Squire/Getty Images/AFP

The Chicago White Sox will look to get back to .500 in a new series at home against the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles are no longer a pushover like years past. Can the White Sox still earn a win to start the series? Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the best sportsbooks!

Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox

Thursday, June 23, 2022 – 08:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field

It’s not going to be a playoff season for the Baltimore Orioles. But the Orioles are starting to improve with a 31-39 record on the season. Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox were supposed to be the team to beat in the AL Central. But they’ve been everything but that with a 33-34 record on the season. 

Tonight, the Orioles will start a road series against the White Sox, looking to keep the White Sox away from .500 on the season. Here are our picks and predictions for tonight’s game between the Orioles and White Sox. 

The Pitching Matchup

The Baltimore Orioles will send out Dean Kramer, who has a 2.35 ERA on the season. However, if you remember anything last season, Kramer has been far from good throughout his career. 

In the last 30 days, Kramer has had a 4.88 xFIP, which proves how lucky he’s been to start the season. He’s earning just 16.1% of strikeouts in the last 30 days and has allowed 25% of line drives in that same time frame while inducing under 40% of grounders. 

On the other hand, Johnny Cueto will get the start for the White Sox. Cueto has a 2.95 ERA in the last 30 days but has also been lucky recently as he has a 5.04 xFIP in the last 30 days. Cueto has given up over 42% of hard contact in those 30 days while allowing poor numbers to righties through his last 78 plate appearances against them. 

Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?

The Orioles have struggled towards the bottom of their lineup against lefties. However, Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander, and Ryan Mountcastle have shown off some power. 

Fortunately for Mancini, Cueto has allowed a .335 wOBA and ISO of .189 in the last 30 days against righties. Mancini will be the big right-handed bat against Cueto in this game for the Orioles. 

Meanwhile, the White Sox have been just as poor at the plate with the bottom of their lineup. However, the White Sox have struck out just 15.8% of the time and have five guys in the lineup hitting a .338 wOBA or better against righties in the last 30 days. 

The White Sox are hitting nearly 50% of ground balls against righties in the last 30 days but still have more potential as a lineup over the Orioles. 
Game Prediction

Kramer and Cueto have ERAs below 3 to start the season. But both of these pitchers have xFIPs nearing 5 in the last 30 days. Things will eventually turn for hitters against these two pitchers. 

Kramer is allowing 25% of line drives and rarely gets ground balls. That fits nicely with the White Sox, knowing the White Sox usually hit a ton of ground balls. If Kramer can’t earn strikeouts, and he’s going to give up 25% of line drives, the White Sox will find ways to score runs in this game. 

Meanwhile, Cueto has been able to limit walks well and really only has to worry about Trey Mancini when it comes down to it. Mancini is the only prominent right-handed bat in the Orioles lineup in the last 30 days. The other powerful bats in the Baltimore order will bat from the left-handed side, where Cueto has held opponents to a .220 wOBA and ISO of .098. 

The Pick

I like the White Sox to get the job done at home. There’s more potential in their lineup and they’ve got a veteran pitcher that is better at escaping damage. 

Kramer is giving up way too many line drives and if he’s not going to get strikeouts, the White Sox will capitalize. 

I’m grabbing the White Sox for my MLB pick of the day. The moneyline is a bit high but I’m not going to get any fancy here. Just grab the moneyline and back the White Sox to get the win, at home, against the Orioles, to get back to .500 on the season. 

MLB Pick: White Sox (-165) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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White Sox (-165)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.