Editor’s Note: Game 3 of the World Series was postponed due to rain, according to MLB. The game will now be played on Tuesday, November 1st at 08:03 PM EDT.
The top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for tonight’s World Series Game 3 action between Astros and Phillies.
For reasons that I will explain, you should take advantage of two prop betting opportunities available at any of our best sportsbooks.
Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Monday, October 31, 2022 – 08:03 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Player to Hit a Home Run in the Game
For this prop bet, we are investing in a player to hit a home run in tonight's game. Last time, for Game 2, a home run was hit despite Philadelphia fielding its ace and despite Houston starting an extreme ground ball-inducing pitcher.
Tonight's Astros starter, Lance McCullers Jr., does not show such strong ground ball-inducing tendencies. Meanwhile, Philadelphia's pitching looks more vulnerable tonight. Because Ranger Suarez pitched in relief in Game 1, he is not starting tonight, although he is Philadelphia's third-best starting pitcher.
Instead of Suarez, Noah Syndergaard will get the nod, to be followed by some host of Philly relievers. The Phillies love to rely on two relievers, in particular, Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado.
The strong extent to which they've pitched this postseason explains their team's improvement in bullpen ERA relative to the regular season. But they obviously aren't going to pitch 6 innings tonight. So, Philadelphia will have to trot out weaker relievers to eat up innings.
Kyle Schwarber Will Hit a Home Run
I generally hate to say that a player or a team is "due" to do anything, although this is a common way of speaking. But Kyle Schwarber justifies an exception to the rule because he was so close to hitting a home run in his last at-bat in Game 2.
In that at-bat, one of his batted balls narrowly strayed foul before the last one hit an invisible brick wall at the warning track.
Schwarber is well-positioned to hit a home run tonight also because he'll get to face Houston's righty-heavy pitching staff, starting with McCullers.
In the regular season, 36 of Schwarber's 46 homers came against right-handed pitching, which is what one expects from a left-handed slugger. Hence, his slugging rate was .566 against lefties and .386 against righties.
Schwarber Against McCullers's Pitches
Tonight's Astros starter, who is the pitcher Schwarber will likely see most often, features four pitches. He mostly throws a slider, curveball, sinker, and changeup.
Schwarber merits optimism tonight for slugging .611 against these pitches from righties. His tendency to thrive against these pitches makes him uniquely likely to achieve a home run tonight, particularly against McCullers.
Home Run-Match Winner Parlay
For this bet to hit, two things need to happen. If one of these things or none of these things happens, then the bat won't lose.
In order to place the bet, we will need to invest in a player to hit a home run and a team to win. To be precise, I recommend betting on Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run and the Astros to win.
Why Houston Will Win
Regarding one part of this prop, the expectation that Houston wins, I believe that its pitching advantage is too strong tonight. Philadelphia ranks 13th in slugging against McCullers's four favorite pitches from righties.
The Phillies are more likely to succeed in general against left-handed pitching and against other pitches than the ones McCullers features. So, tonight is a bad matchup for their lineup.
But their starting pitching looks particularly weak tonight with their fourth-best starting pitcher option spearheading a bullpen game.
During the regular season, Philly's bullpen ranked towards the bottom in ERA. Generally, its starting pitcher quality dropped off after Ranger Suarez.
Yordan Alvarez Will Hit a Home Run
I also expect Houston's top slugger, Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run. The power lefty is finding his groove after he hit a slump after his legendary efforts against Seattle. He'll have plenty of options against Philly's opposite-handed pitchers.
With your MLB picks in mind, invest in the Alvarez home run and Astros win parlay prop bet.
MLB Parlay Prop Pick: Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run / Houston Astros to Win (+425) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.