MLB Sunday Picks: Best Moneyline, Run Line and Total for September 25

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Juan Soto #22 of the San Diego Padres hits a double against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on September 24, 2022 Matthew Stockman/Getty Images/AFP

Our latest Sunday Funday of MLB picks features one of the biggest dogs in the yard, a Cy Young candidate, and a whiff of Mile High air.

It’s been a very profitable run here at the home office since we started paying a nominal amount for some quality analytics. Too bad those models couldn’t come up with any compelling MLB picks last Sunday; we went with FiveThirtyEight’s free projections instead, and we came up dry on both the moneyline and the run line.

The good news: Our models have identified two worthy teams on this Sunday’s MLB odds board. The total is once again only worth a recreational bet, but overall, we’re pretty happy with our latest trio of baseball picks.

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Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox

Sunday, September 25, 2022 – 02:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field

The most profitable of our picks (potentially) takes us to the Windy City, where one of the biggest underdogs on Sunday’s slate will take on a team that can’t seem to shake off that pesky injury bug.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are last in the AL Central division, and they’re about to have their sixth consecutive losing season – which makes them a solid “buy low” candidate as the regular season draws to a close. It would help if Tyler Alexander (4.90 xFIP) had a little more to offer on the mound. But at least Alexander won his last start, allowing just two hits over seven innings in a 11-0 victory over Baltimore (-201 at home) on September 19.

Plus, he’s got the seventh-ranked bullpen in the majors supporting him, as per the WAR charts at FanGraphs.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox took two of three off the Tigers last week in Detroit, but they followed that up by dropping three straight to Cleveland, then the first game of this series. CF Luis Robert (.746 OPS) is their latest casualty; he’ll probably miss the rest of the year with a sprained wrist, leaving Adam Engel (.575 OPS) to fill in.

Dylan Cease (3.38 xFIP) is up 4.82 betting units this season on a team record of 20-10, but regression is catching up to his 2.13 ERA and .261 BABIP against. The Pale Hose have dropped each of Cease’s last two starts and four of the past six.

The Moneyline Pick

The White Sox might actually be better off since interim manager Miguel Cairo took over from the ailing Tony La Russa, but they’re still in a bit of a funk right now. We’ll take Detroit at this price, please and thank you.

MLB Pick: Tigers ML (+224) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Tigers ML (+224)
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Sunday, September 25, 2022 – 01:10 PM EDT at Tropicana Field

The Tigers are also Sunday’s best bet on the run line, but this matchup’s not too far behind. The big question: Is Tampa’s projected starter healthy?

Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays have been running hot and cold all year, and they find themselves in a cold spell at exactly the wrong time, dropping four straight – including their first two games against Tampa. However, Ross Stripling (3.65 xFIP) has Toronto at 14-7 and 3.31 units in the black in his 21 starts, with victories in eight of his last nine appearances.

Tampa Bay Rays

Now that Shane McClanahan (2.43 xFIP) is back off the injured list, the Rays have their rotation in very good shape for the postseason. Too bad they’re so chalky when McClanahan pitches – he’s only up 0.64 units on a record of 16-10.

The Run Line Pick

We’re taking a big chance here saddling the Rays at -1.5 in a game where the total is only 6.5, but our models like Tampa equally on the run line and the moneyline, so let’s see if they can take advantage of Toronto’s recent malaise.

MLB Pick: Rays -1.5 (+170) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies

Sunday, September 25, 2022 – 03:10 PM EDT at Coors Field

Betting MLB totals is always more fun when you’re in the thin air at Coors Field. It should be even more fun on a warm September night in Denver.

San Diego Padres

We were hoping regression would help San Diego get the Over to the pay window last week. It didn’t. But the Padres have Mike Clevinger (4.76 xFIP) lined up for this start, and he has the Over at 12-7 this year.

Colorado Rockies

Even with all those inflated totals, the Rockies have the Over at 41-38 in their home games (not including pushes) as we go to press, compared to 24-48 on the road. Kyle Freeland (4.49 xFIP) as a personal 12-14-3 Over record, but that includes 4-0 versus the Padres – two home, two away.

The Over/Under Pick

Sunday’s weather report calls for temperatures in the high 70s for this matchup. That’s pretty good for the first week of autumn. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.

MLB Pick: Over 10.5 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.