Usually, by mid-August, it’s clear who the Rookie of the Year is going to be in the National League and American League.
In the American League, the race is likely over, but in the National League, we’ve got two teammates fighting for the award.
That doesn’t happen very often. Let’s break down the recent trends, and the latest MLB odds and give our best bet for the Rookie of the Year in the National League and American League.
Recent Trends
Julio Rodriguez is a Huge Favorite on the AL Side
Although Bobby Witt Jr. was the favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year before the season began, Julio Rodriguez has impressed way more.
I’m not saying Witt has been bad. He’s been terrific and his currently listed second by the oddsmakers at +800.
But Rodriguez has a .271 average with:
- 18 home runs
- 57 RBIs
- An OPS of .816.
He’s hitting consistently against both lefties and righties. Although he started the season slowly, Rodriguez finally started to develop and found his game in May.
Massive Impact
In April, Rodriguez hit just .205 with 73 at-bats. He struggled and the Mariners struggled. However, in May, Rodriguez hit .309 with an OPS of .866. Then, in June, he had an OPS of .903.
That streak continued as he also had a .884 OPS in July before getting injured. When he was struggling, so were the Mariners. When he got hot, so did the Mariners. He’s made a massive impact on this Seattle Mariners team and it hasn’t gone unnoticed.
Rodriguez has also earned 21 stolen bases while playing a really good center field. Everything has added up for Rodriguez to win the AL Rookie of the Year.
Not as Good
Meanwhile, his competition, Bobby Witt Jr. is hitting a .256 average with:
- 15 home runs
- 57 RBIs
- An OPS of .744
Witt Jr. has been having a terrific rookie campaign, it just hasn’t been as good as Rodriguez. Like Rodriguez, Witt has earned 22 steals but his splits are a bit off, as he’s struggling to hit lefties as a right-handed batter.
If he was consistently hitting righties, we would be having a different conversation about this Rookie of the Year battle. But right now, it’s clearly Rodriguez’s. We just have to hope he comes back sooner than later for this postseason run the Mariners are putting together.
Which Braves Player Will win NL Rookie of the Year?
Spencer Strider currently leads his teammate, Michael Harris II, in the NL Rookie of the Year battle.
Strider is a starting pitcher, who has gone 6-4 with a 3.11 ERA on the season. He’s struck out 138 batters and has a WHIP of 1.05. Strider has only started 13 games this season but has pitched in 24 games this year.
He started in the bullpen and then became an effective starter when the Braves needed help with their rotation. Since then, he hasn’t looked back. He’s only walked 34 batters and has only given up five home runs on the season through 89.2 innings of work.
Although he’s only thrown 89.2 innings, Strider still has 138 strikeouts and is 11th in baseball in that category.
Harris II, in Second Place
On the other hand, Michael Harris II also didn’t start the season starting every day. He basically started playing every day in June and has still made a big enough impression to be considered for the award.
In May, Harris II hit .347 with an OPS of .946. But it wasn’t just the hitting that was doing the talking. His glove and arm in center field are unlike anything we’ve ever seen. It’s shades of Andruw Jones out there!
Clearly, Strider has had more time to develop in the MLB. He’s been able to earn better stats by playing more. But if Harris continues to gun down runners at home and keeps his average around .300 on the season, Harris could easily take this award away from Strider, who currently has odds at -155 to win.
The Best Bets
Julio Rodriguez is the clear favorite to win the American League Rookie of the Year. There’s really not much value on him. If Rodriguez stays out for a longer period of time and Bobby Witt Jr. continues to rake, there’s a real chance Witt Jr. can steal the award.
However, the Mariners have a chance at making the playoffs this year while the Royals really don’t. That’s going to help Rodriguez when it comes down to it.
I’d bet Rodriguez if you wanted to bet this market but there’s not much value.
On the other hand, Spencer Strider just struggled in his last start and complained about it. Michael Harris, on the other hand, is busy gunning down runners and making extraordinary plays.
I’d bet Michael Harris to overtake Strider in the NL Rookie of the Year market. There’s value there.
Calculators
