Top-rated sportsbooks have released their odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Reds vs. Brewers and Dodgers vs. Padres.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the total for both games.
Feel free to parlay both bets at an Online Sports Betting Site in order to maximize your profit.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Friday, September 9, 2022 – 08:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
Who Starts for Cincinnati?
Nick Lodolo starts for the Reds tonight. Lodolo is coming off one of his best starts of the season.
On September 4, he shut out Colorado over the course of six innings. Pattern-wise, one should expect another strong effort from him tonight.
His best starts tend to come in pairs. For example, at the end of May he allowed a combined total of one earned run in two starts against the Orioles and Marlins.
Second Half of the Season
In general, Lodolo has improved greatly from the first half of the season to the second.
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 3.22 in the second half whereas it was 4.86 in the first half.
Among other things, he is doing a much better job of limiting home runs.
Lodolo is adept at generating whiffs. One common feature of his different pitches is a high spin rate, which makes it difficult for batters to track the location of his pitches.
Primarily, he throws a sinker, curveball, and changeup. These three pitches make up 99.9 percent of his arsenal. His curveball, for example, ranks in the 83rd percentile in terms of spin rate.
Another feature of his pitches is heavy movement. Typically, Lodolo's pitches show greater degrees of horizontal and vertical movement than those employed by other pitchers. This level of movement makes his pitches more elusive.
Given the strong spin and movement of his pitches, it could be harder for a pitcher to command their location. Lodolo is improving so significantly largely because he is figuring out how to command his pitches more effectively.
Lodolo vs. Brewers' Batters
Tonight's Red starter matches up well against Brewer batters because he matches up well against them in view of the pitches that he throws and the fact that he's a lefty.
Throughout the season, Milwaukee has owned one of the worst lefty-hitting lineups.
Critically for tonight, they rank 29th in slugging .287 against Lodolo's pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Milwaukee?
Milwaukee starts Jason Alexander tonight. Alexander may seem tempting to fade because he's suffered a couple poor outings recently.
But it's hard to fault him for struggling in Arizona's uniquely dry climate in his last start and, three starts ago, for failing to limit the mighty Dodgers.
Alexander vs. Red Batters
Alexander's favorite pitches are his sinker, slider, and changeup. These three pitches make up 96 percent of his arsenal.
Red batters, however, rank 25th in slugging against his favorite pitches. Generally, Cincinnati repeatedly fails to generate any stretch of success. Hence, the lineup repeatedly falls flat after participating in two straight victories.
In the second half of the season, the Reds have failed to exceed 3 runs in all five games that directly followed a two-game win streak.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Friday, September 9, 2022 - 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Who Starts for San Diego?
Mike Clevinger starts for the Padres tonight. Clevinger is in a nice bounce-back spot today because he is coming off a loss.
With 6 losses on the season, Clevinger has allowed 2 runs or fewer in every start that directly followed a loss except for when he pitched in high-altitude Denver.
Moreover, Clevinger enjoys a rematch situation in which he faces the same team twice in a row.
Most recently, he shut out Arizona over 6 innings after pitching against them in his previous start.
His success against the same lineup, faced in consecutive outings, extends to his most recent rematch situations over the course of recent seasons.
Who Starts for Los Angeles?
Dustin May starts for the Dodgers. Though a smaller historical data sample speaks for it, May is in a good spot tonight.
Most especially, he merits optimism tonight because he matches up well against Padre batters.
They rank 28th in slugging against his favorite pitches, the fastball, sinker, cutter, and curveball, from righties.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (+105) at BetOnline
MLB Parlay Verdict
With your MLB Picks, expect low-scoring contests in Milwaukee and San Diego.
MLB Parlay Picks for Today
- Reds vs. Brewers: Under 8.5 (-115)
- Dodgers vs. Padres: Under 8 (+105)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+283) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.