Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Pirates vs. Mets, Mariners vs. Angels, and Padres vs. Diamondbacks.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the total for the first and third games and the money-line for the second. Feel free to parlay these bets at top-rated sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets
Friday, September 16, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
Who Starts for Pittsburgh?
Mitch Keller starts for Pittsburgh tonight. Keller has been a strong "over" pitcher this season, but this fact does not reflect his quality as a pitcher. To be exact, this fact used to reflect his quality because he was awful in the first two months of the season.
But Keller's form back in April and May has nothing to do with his form in September. He has allowed 0 runs in both of his last 2 starts, shutting down the Mets over the course of 6 innings and silencing St. Louis over the course of 7 innings.
Before facing these teams, he allowed 2 runs in 6 innings in Milwaukee. When Keller leaves the game, though, Pittsburgh suffers from having one of baseball's worst bullpens.
Pittsburgh's bullpen yields the fourth-highest ERA among bullpens. Any faith in Keller must, therefore, reasonably be articulated in a first-half bet and not a full-game one.
Keller's Positive Traits
Positive features of Keller's repertoire include the high spin rate and strong location of his pitches.
His favorite pitch is his fastball, and this pitch ranks in the 87th percentile in spin rate.
He gladly elevates his fastball, giving it the appearance of rising action, which induces batters to swing underneath it.
As heat maps show, he consistently locates this and his other favorite pitches along the edges of the strike zone.
Who Starts for the Mets?
Taijuan Walker starts for the Mets tonight. Walker boasts a relatively strong level of variety in his pitching arsenal.
He doesn't throw a single pitch over 30% of the time. In particular, he favors his fastball, split finger, and slider.
These three pitches make up about 75% of his arsenal. Pittsburgh batters look unreliable tonight because they rank 28th in slugging .345 against these pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: First Half Under 4.5 (-113) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Friday, September 16, 2022 - 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Who Starts for Seattle?
Robbie Ray starts for Seattle tonight. Ray's ERA is as high as it is largely because he's occasionally struggled massively against baseball's better lineups.
Houston, for example, hit him very hard. But the Angels do not have one of baseball's better lineups. They rank 26th in runs per game.
Ray vs. Angels' Batters
Indeed, historically, Ray loves facing the Angels. He is 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA in four career starts against the Angels.
Even more pertinently to my Best Bet for this game, he is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two career starts at Angel Stadium.
Who Starts for the Angels?
Michael Lorenzen, tonight's starter for the Angels, is surely dreading the Mariners tonight.
He faced them on June 17 and June 24, allowing a combined total of 9 earned runs in 8 innings.
Lorenzen vs. Mariners' Batters
Pretty much exclusively, Lorenzen throws a sinker, fastball, slider, changeup, and cutter.
Mariner batters merit optimism tonight because, outside of their uniquely hitters-friendly ballpark, they rank ninth in slugging against Lorenzen's pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: Mariners ML (-157) at Bookmaker
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, September 16, 2022 - 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
Who Starts for San Diego?
Blake Snell starts for the Padres tonight. Snell is a strong "under" pitcher this season.
This is especially true outside of San Diego. The "under" is 7-1 when he starts on the road.
Snell enters tonight's game in solid form. He's yielded a sub-three FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in each of his last three games.
His 2.92 FIP on the season reflects how much better he is performing than his ERA suggests he is.
Snell vs. Arizona's Batters
Tonight, Snell's outlook is particularly promising because he is facing the Diamondbacks. His ERA is 0.76 in six career starts against them.
Who Starts for Arizona?
Madison Bumgarner starts for Arizona tonight. He's struggled in recent starts because he's faced teams that match up superbly against him.
Three of his last four opponents rank top-four in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties. But he performed well against the other opponent, Milwaukee.
Bumgarner vs. Padres' Batters
Like Milwaukee, San Diego batters match up poorly against him. The Padres rank 20th in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Indeed, he thrived against the Padres in both of his starts against them in Arizona.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-103) at Bookmaker
MLB Parlay Verdict
With your MLB picks, expect low-scoring games in Queens and Arizona and a strong Seattle win.
For the above reasons, parlay the Pirates/Mets first-half "under," the Mariners money-line, and the Padres/Diamondbacks "under."
Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks for Today
- Pirates vs. Mets: First Half Under 4.5 (-113)
- Mariners vs. Angels: Mariners ML (-157)
- Padres vs. Diamondbacks: Under 8.5 (-103)
MLB Pick: Three-Legged Parlay (+508) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.