MLB Parlay for Today (+486) Features Jose Quintana Facing Former Team

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Jose Quintana #62 of the St. Louis Cardinals delivers a pitch against the Atlanta Braves on August 26, 2022. Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images/AFP

The top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action and three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in for our daily parlay, including the revenge game for Jose Quintana against his former team. From Sunday’s slate we’re looking at:

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the side for all three games.

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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Sunday, September 11, 2022 – 01:35 PM EDT at PNC

Who Starts for Pittsburgh?

Mitch Keller starts for Pittsburgh today. Despite facing Milwaukee and then the Mets, Pittsburgh won the last two games in which Keller started.

Keller's performance quality largely explains why. After allowing two earned runs in six innings to Milwaukee -- he also accumulated 10 strikeouts in this start -- he shut out the Mets over the course of six innings.

Keller vs. Cardinal Batters

Keller's great form makes him reliable because he is thriving even against lineups that hit his pitches well. The Mets and Brewers squads he dominated rank top-four in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.

Much earlier in the season, Keller faced the Cardinals twice. In the season opener, he allowed four runs to them in four innings.

But most recently, in June, he allowed two runs to them in 5.1 innings, yielding a 2.93 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding). His season-opening effort is irrelevant to this one because his form in April does not affect his form all the way in September.

Whereas he repeatedly struggled early in the season even against lesser lineups, he is dominating everyone right now. Thus, one should expect him today to have his best performance against St. Louis.

Who Starts for the Cardinals?

Jose Quintana starts for St. Louis today. While Pittsburgh matches up unusually better against his pitches than it does against others, the truth of the matter is that Quintana is in a uniquely awful spot. He last pitched for Pittsburgh on July 29 before St. Louis acquired him.

Quintana merits pessimism today because he is facing his former team who is intimately familiar with him and his pitching style and preferences due to their recent stint together.

Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals

Sunday, September 11, 2022 - 02:10 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium

Who Starts for Detroit?

Tyler Alexander starts for Detroit this afternoon. By far, Alexander is his team's least profitable pitcher for bettors.

Overall, he is yielding -9.8 units in his starts. Detroit is 1-11 in games in which he starts.

Alexander on the Road

This situation is particularly awful on the road. The Tigers are 0-6, yielding -6 units, in road games in which Alexander starts.

Individually, Alexander is at his worst on the road. He's allowed a combined total of 13 earned runs in his last two road starts. This season, his FIP is 6.93 outside of Detroit compared to 3.54 in Detroit.

Alexander vs. Royal Batters

Kansas City owns one of the better lefty-hitting lineups in general as measured by slugging rate.

Moreover, the Royals rank above average in slugging against Alexander's favorite pitches from lefties.

Who Starts for Kansas City?

Brady Singer starts for the Royals today. He is his team's most profitable pitcher for bettors.

Currently, he's yielding +5.9 units. Singer is especially lucrative to back at home where he's yielding +4.6 units.

Singer vs. Tiger Batters

Today's Royal starter is a solid bet to make a long and high-quality outing. He's endured six innings or more in 10 of his last 11 starts.

Detroit will be another victim for Singer because it ranks last-place in slugging .319 against his favorite pitches from righties.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies

Sunday, September 11, 2022 - 02:10 PM EDT at Coors Field

Who Starts for Arizona?

Zac Gallen starts for Arizona today. Far from struggling in Colorado's uniquely hitters-friendly ballpark, Gallen loves pitching here.

He is 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA in five career starts at Coors Field. Plus, Colorado ranks below-average in slugging against Gallen's favorite pitches from righties despite playing half its games in Denver.

Who Starts for Colorado?

Colorado starts Ryan Feltner today. Feltner has an awful tendency to give up home runs. Because this tendency exists even in his road starts -- he allows 1.91 homers per nine innings in away games -- he's especially likely to give up home runs in high-altitude Denver.

His proneness to surrendering home runs aside, Arizona is primed to hit him hard today because it ranks ninth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.

Parlay Verdict

With your MLB Picks, expect a surprising win from Pittsburgh plus strong victories from Kansas City and Arizona.

For the above reasons, I recommend parlaying all three sides. If you feel greedy including an underdog in your parlay, then just go with the two favorites and place straight wagers on the Pirates' moneyline and run line.

Be sure to use BMR's free parlay calculator for your betting needs.

Parlay Picks

  • Pirates RL +1.5 (+112)
  • Royals ML (-145)
  • Diamondbacks ML (-157)

MLB Pick: Three-Legged Parlay (+486) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Three-Legged Parlay (+486)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.