Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Marlins vs. Phillies and Blue Jays vs. Orioles.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the run line for the first game and the total for the second. Feel free to parlay these bets at one of our best sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Wednesday, September 7, 2022 – 06:45 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Who Pitches for the Marlins Today?
Miami starts Trevor Rogers tonight.
Pertinently to my best bet for this game, Rogers is his team's least profitable pitcher, and it isn't close. Overall, he yields -11.4 units.
His most recent starts contribute to the fact that he's been a horrible pitcher to invest in. The Marlins have lost the last five games in which Rogers started, including the one in which they were favored at -165 against Pittsburgh.
Rogers is frequently the underdog, and it hasn't been paying off to invest in the plus money in his starts. In games in which Rogers is listed as the underdog, Miami is yielding -8.5 units.
Avoid Recency Bias
It is part of human psychology to tend to attach exaggerated significance to most recent events. But this tendency would be problematic in Rogers's case.
While it may be tempting to like Rogers tonight because he is coming off a strong start, it would show a lack of awareness of his season-long tendencies.
Specifically, Rogers is someone who constantly struggles to be consistent in terms of the run totals that he yields.
Rogers Against Phillies' Batters
More critically, Rogers merits pessimism tonight because he matches up poorly against Phillies' batters given the pitches that he throws and the fact that he's left-handed.
He relies on three pitches: a fastball, changeup, and slider. Percentage-wise, he easily throws his fastball most often. Batters are seeing this pitch 52% of the time. Even though it's his favorite pitch, he struggles to be effective with it.
Opponents hit .323 and slug .565 against his fastball, often taking advantage of its frequent tendency to land in the more middle parts of the strike zone. One should expect Philadelphia to thrive against all his pitches because they rank seventh in slugging against these pitches from lefties.
Who Pitches for the Phillies Today?
Bailey Falter starts for the Phillies tonight.
In contrast to Rogers, Falter has collected the win in each of his last three starts. This ongoing trend has made him all the more profitable to back. Philadelphia has won the last four games in which he started.
Falter is now his team's most profitable pitcher, yielding +6.7 units. The Phillies are 5-1 when he is listed as the favorite.
Falter Against Marlins' Batters
Falter's favorite pitches are his sinker, fastball, and slider. These three pitches make up over 80% of his arsenal.
He looks reliable tonight because the Marlins rank 29th in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties. Plus, Falter is easily a fly ball-inducing pitcher. He induces ground balls with only 31% frequency.
This fact makes up match up even better against Marlins' batters because they are their worst against fly ball-inducing pitchers, slugging .344 against them.
MLB Pick: Phillies RL -1.5 (+118) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, September 7, 2022 - 07:05 PM EDT at Oriole Park
Who Pitches for the Blue Jays Today?
Alek Manoah starts for Toronto today.
Manoah enters this game in strong form. Specifically, he has allowed one earned run or zero runs in each of his last three starts while lasting at least 6 innings in each of them.
Manoah in Baltimore
He last pitched in Baltimore on August 9. His 5.40 ERA in that game masks his 2.31 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) which reflects how well he actually performed.
Given his current form, Manoah looks primed for another solid individual performance.
Who Pitches for the Orioles Today?
Dean Kremer starts for the Orioles tonight.
Similar to Manoah, Kremer enters today in strong form. Kremer has allowed 2 runs or fewer in each of his last four starts, thriving even against Houston and, indeed, Toronto on the road.
Both of these teams rank top-six in slugging against Kremer's pitches, which shows his current ability to dominate even those lineups that match up well against him on paper.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-105) at BetOnline
MLB Parlay Verdict
With your MLB picks in mind, expect a strong win from Philadelphia and a low-scoring pitcher's duel in Baltimore.
For the above reasons, parlay the Phillies run line with the Toronto/Baltimore "Under." Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks for Today
- Marlins vs. Phillies: Phillies RL -1.5 (+118)
- Blue Jays vs. Orioles: Under 7.5 (-105)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+325) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.