Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Phillies vs. Diamondbacks and Padres vs. Giants.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the total for both games. Feel free to parlay these bets at one of our best sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Monday, August 29, 2022 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
Who Pitches for the Phillies Today?
Ranger Suarez starts for Philadelphia today.
In sundry situations, he is a strong "Over" pitcher. The "Over" is hitting in over 60% of his starts overall, as the favorite, and at night.
Suarez in Arizona
Some pitchers do not like the uniquely dry Arizona climate because it affects their grip. Suarez, throughout his career, has been one of those pitchers.
In three career appearances in Phoenix, totaling 6 innings, Suarez is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA.
By far, then, Arizona's Chase Field is Suarez's least-favorite venue in which to compete.
Who Pitches for the Diamondbacks Today?
Madison Bumgarner, an intimidating pitcher in name only, starts for Arizona tonight.
Bumgarner's recent stretch of starts contributes to the fact that the "Over" tends to hit in his games more often than the "Under".
He has had the disadvantage of facing teams, such as St. Louis and Colorado, that are uniquely strong against left-handed pitching. But it is also true that he is struggling to avoid yielding runs in all of his starts. Each of his last five opponents has scored at least 4 earned runs off him.
Bumgarner hasn't been good for some time now. His numbers this year are rather similar to what they were last year. Even if he doesn't give up a home run in a given at-bat, the opposing batter is rather likely to achieve hard contact against his pitches.
Bumgarner's individual pitch quality is unattractive, as evident in his meager velocity and spin rate.
His locational tendencies also don't tend to bail him out to any extent. As heat maps show, he is horrendously prone to leaving pitches in the middle parts of the strike zone where batters are generally more able to make hard contact.
Bumgarner Against Phillies' Batters
To be exact, Bumgarner throws a cutter, fastball, curveball, and changeup. These pitches make up 99.8% of his arsenal.
Opponents regularly thrive against his cutter and fastball, which are his two favorite pitches and which make up 70.2% of his repertoire. His cutter yields a .487 slugging rate, and opposing batters slug .585 against his fastball.
But Phillies' batters will do well against all his pitches. They rank fourth in slugging against Bumgarner's four pitches from lefties.
MLB Pick: Over 9 (+100) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Monday, August 29, 2022 - 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Who Pitches for the Padres Today?
Mike Clevinger starts for the Padres tonight.
Clevinger's pitch selection is intelligent in that he throws his fastball most often, and his fastball is his most effective pitch. Opponents are batting .178 and slugging .307 against Clevinger's fastball. They struggle with its high spin rate, which makes it harder for them to track its location.
Moreover, Clevinger effectively distributes this pitch along different parts of the strike zone, which gives it a dimension of unpredictability, while steering clear of the more middle parts of the zone.
Clevinger Against Giants' Batters
Clevinger's arsenal enjoys a positive degree of variety. In addition to his fastball, Clevinger throws four pitches between 11% and 22% of the time.
Giants' batters, historically, struggle against Clevinger. He has achieved 13 shutout innings in two career starts against the Giants. No active Giants' batter has more than a hit against him.
One should expect this success to continue for two reasons.
- Giants' batters are already struggling now to hit anything. They've failed to exceed 3 runs in any of their past five games.
- They rank 25th in slugging against Clevinger's favorite pitches from righties.
Who Pitches for the Giants Today?
Carlos Rodon starts today for the Giants.
Rodon is tough at home: in San Francisco, he enjoys a six-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio, and opponents hit .208 and slug .312 against him. But Rodon has also been hard to hit no matter where he pitches.
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was under 1.00 in both of his last starts and in three of his last five starts. During this five-start span, he allowed a combined total of 5 runs.
Slugging well below average against Rodon's favorite pitches from lefties, San Diego won't disrupt Rodon's strong form.
MLB Pick: Under 7 (+105) at BetOnline
MLB Parlay Verdict
With your MLB picks in mind, expect a high-scoring game in Arizona and a low-scoring one in San Francisco.
For the above reasons, parlay the Phillies/Diamondbacks Over with the Padres/Giants Under. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks for Today
- Phillies vs. Diamondbacks: Over 9 (+100)
- Padres vs. Giants: Under 7 (+105)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+310) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.