Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Yankees vs. Red Sox and Brewers vs. Cardinals.
While the Yankees rest firmly in the lead of their division, the latter game is particularly exciting because Milwaukee looks to close ground in the NL Central. St. Louis has a seven-game lead over the Brewers.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the moneyline for both games. Feel free to parlay these bets at one of our best sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, September 14, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Who Pitches for the Yankees Today?
Tonight, the Yankees start Nestor Cortes.
The initial months of the season explain why Cortes still counts as a pitcher who is profitable for bettors to back.
New York has lost four of the last five games in which Cortes started. These losses appear particularly concerning because the Yankees were favored, sometimes heavily, in these games.
Cortes in Boston
Historically, Boston's Fenway Park is one of Cortes's least favorite venues. In five appearances and two starts here, he suffers an 8.18 ERA.
His last effort in Boston took place on July 8 when he allowed 4 earned runs in 3.2 innings.
Cortes Against Red Sox' Batters
A southpaw, Cortes primarily throws a fastball, cutter, and slider. These three pitches combine to make up close to 95% of his arsenal.
Boston batters merit optimism tonight because they rank fifth in slugging against Cortes' favorite pitches from lefties.
Who Pitches for the Red Sox Today?
Brayan Bello starts for Boston tonight.
Bello may look unreliable given his high ERA. But his high ERA masks an excellent 2.95 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which reflects how well he is actually performing.
Especially in some of his earlier starts in July, his ERA has suffered from his yielding an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite doing a good job of generating soft contact.
The former top pitching prospect has been performing well, yielding a 1.95 FIP at home against Texas before yielding a 2.74 FIP in his most recent start, against Baltimore.
His success against Texas is consistent with the success that he's enjoyed at home this season. Bello's home FIP is 2.82.
Crucially, he's thrived at home even against teams, such as Toronto, that match up well against him on paper in view of the pitches that he throws (he favors his sinker, changeup, fastball, and slider).
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (+114) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, September 14, 2022 - 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Who Pitches for the Brewers Today?
Corbin Burnes starts for the Brewers tonight.
Pertinently to my best bet for this game, Burnes has been good for bettors to back on the road.
Even though he is repeatedly chalked, Milwaukee is yielding +2.4 units in road games in which Burnes starts.
Recently, Burnes underwent a tough stretch of play. Confidence in him is only possible if he is like himself. Burnes' last start is thus crucial to observe because, in that start, he rediscovered his usual, dominating self.
In that start, he allowed one run in 8 innings. This most recent gem is consistent with his season-long success.
So far, he's allowed one earned run or fewer in half his starts. In a similar vein, Burnes accrued 14 strikeouts in his last start, and on the season, he's striking out 11.20 batters per 9 innings.
Burnes in St. Louis
Burnes is in a great spot today because, historically, he thrives in St. Louis. In Busch Stadium, Burnes enjoys a 1.38 ERA in five starts.
Among others, look out for Nolan Arenado to struggle. Arenado is 3-for-17 (.176) with 4 strikeouts in his career against Burnes.
Who Pitches for the Cardinals Today?
Adam Wainwright starts for the Cardinals tonight.
Wainwright will face Milwaukee for the fifth time this season.
Overall, Milwaukee has gotten the best of Wainwright rather than vice versa. He is 0-2 with a 4.70 ERA in four starts against the Brewers.
Wainwright Against Brewers' Batters
In terms of pitches, Wainwright favors a curveball, sinker, and cutter. These three pitches make up, together, close to 85% of his arsenal.
Always glad to avoid facing left-handed pitchers, Milwaukee ranks eighth in slugging against Wainwright's favorite pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: Brewers ML (-118) at Heritage Sports
MLB Parlay Verdict
With your MLB picks in mind, expect an upset win from Boston and a strong Brewers' victory as Milwaukee looks to complete a two-game mini-sweep while gaining ground in the division, which the Cardinals lead by seven.
For the above reasons, parlay both Boston and Milwaukee on the moneyline. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks
- Yankees vs. Red Sox: Red Sox ML (+114)
- Brewers vs. Cardinals: Brewers ML (-118)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+295) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.