MLB Parlay for Today at (+272) Features the Reliable Shane Bieber

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Shane Bieber #57 of the Cleveland Guardians pitches against the Detroit Tigers. Gregory Shamus/Getty Images/AFP.

Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Guardians vs. Royals and Brewers vs. Rockies.

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the total for both games. Feel free to parlay these bets at one of our best sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals

Tuesday, September 6, 2022 – 08:10 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium

Who Pitches for the Guardians Today?

Cleveland starts Shane Bieber tonight.

Pertinently to my best bet for this game, the "Under" has hit in the last three games in which Bieber started. He is a strong "Under" pitcher, especially in night games. At night, the "Under" is 9-2 when Bieber starts.

He is a reliable "Under" pitcher in general because he rarely allows more than 2 runs while lasting 6 or 7 innings.

Bieber's Strong Spot 

For tonight's game, Bieber is in a uniquely strong spot because he is coming off a loss. This season, he has collected eight losses including one in his most recent start.

It is evident that he is extra focused after a loss because he has allowed one earned run in every start, but one, that immediately followed a loss.

A Concerning Counterargument? 

One might object that many of the teams that Bieber faced directly after a loss were weak. The upshot of this objection would be that Bieber is not actually strong after a loss; he has merely faced weak opponents when he is in this position.

I do not find this counterargument effective because Bieber facing weak opponents after a loss does not negate the fact that his starts against them were strong; allowing one earned run in a start is impressive.

Besides, Kansas City is also a weak team offensively. The Royals rank 24th in runs per game. One should expect from Bieber tonight something like 7 innings with one run allowed.

Who Pitches for the Royals Today?

Kris Bubic starts for Kansas City.

Bubic's ERA is as high as it is because he was pummeled in a few starts that took place much earlier in the season.

It's a long season, though, and it's unfair to judge a pitcher's current chances based on his performances that took place months ago.

Bubic Against Guardians' Batters 

Bubic is primed to build off his most recent start, in which he allowed 2 runs in 6 innings, because he faces an ideal matchup. Guardians' batters repeatedly struggle against left-handed pitching.

In their last three games in which the opposing starter was left-handed, they scored a combined total of one run.

They merit pessimism especially tonight because they rank 29th in slugging against Bubic's favorite pitches from lefties.

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-113) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies

Tuesday, September 6, 2022 - 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field

Who Pitches for the Brewers Today?

Brandon Woodruff starts for Milwaukee today.

The "Over" has value in this game simply because a great pitcher is pitching for Milwaukee. This might seem odd to say, but here's the explanation. The posted total is as low as it is because Woodruff boasts such a strong ERA.

However, Woodruff has a terrible career history in Denver's ballpark. Here, he suffers a 9.24 ERA in three career starts.

I like the "Over" for this game because he won't perform tonight with the effectivity characteristic of a pitcher with a strong ERA and because this effectivity explains why the total is as low as it is.

Who Pitches for the Rockies Today?

Chad Kuhl starts for the Rockies tonight.

Kuhl relies mostly on a two-pitch combo. He throws his sinker and slider with a combined 78.1% frequency.

Kuhl's Matchup Outlook

Milwaukee's hitters look reliable tonight because they rank fourth in slugging against Kuhl's two favorite pitches from righties. Kuhl repeatedly struggles against teams that match up well against him in this way.

Other teams that he's faced that rank top-five against his favorite pitches from righties are the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers. Most recently, he's yielded an ERA of 9.00 or higher in four of his last six games against these teams.

To be clear, one of these teams that he's recently faced includes Milwaukee itself, which scored 3 earned runs in 2.1 innings against him on July 24.

MLB Pick: Over 11 (-103) at Heritage Sports

MLB Parlay Verdict 

With your MLB picks in mind, expect a low-scoring game in Kansas City and a high-scoring one in Colorado.

For the above reasons, parlay the "Under" between Cleveland and Kansas City and the "Over" between Milwaukee and Colorado. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.

MLB Parlay Picks

  • Guardians vs. Royals: Under 7.5 (-113)
  • Brewers vs. Rockies: Over 11 (-103)

MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+272) at Heritage Sports

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.