MLB Parlay for Today at (+265) Features Low-Scoring Games in Cleveland and Oakland

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Michael Lorenzen #25 of the Los Angeles Angels throws against the Oakland Athletics. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images/AFP.

Top Sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in:

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the total for both games. Feel free to parlay both bets at a top-rated sportsbook in order to maximize your profit.

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Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians

Tuesday, October 04, 2022 – 06:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field

Who Starts for Kansas City?

The Royals start Daniel Lynch today. A common misconception, that applies to Lynch, is that it is a bad idea to bet the "under" in games involving a starting pitcher with a high ERA.

The idea, a mistaken one, is that bad pitchers tend to help games go "over" the posted total. However, the fact that a pitcher is good or bad is already baked into the odds.

Thus, for example, this total would be lower if, for example, Max Scherzer were pitching. Lynch is not Scherzer, and therefore the total is what it is.

Lynch is more than capable of helping games stay "under" the posted total when the total is as high as it is in his games. In fact, the "under" has hit in each of the last three games in which he started. Overall, the "under" hits in 53.8-percent of his starts.


When pitchers start their professional careers, they often struggle to pace themselves for a long season.

This struggle makes sense because they are probably eager and nervous to perform at their highest possible level.

Last year, which was also his first year as a professional, Lynch appeared to wear himself out.

Whereas, last year, he struggled in his last starts, he is thriving as this year wraps up. He has allowed a combined total of 3 earned runs in his past two starts, totaling 10 innings.

Lynch vs. Guardians' Batters 

Today's Royal pitcher matches up well against Guardian batters especially in view of the fact that he's left-handed. He favors three pitches in particular: his fastball, slider, and changeup.

Lynch throws each of these pitches well over three times as often as he throws any other pitch. Altogether, these three pitches make up 92.1% of his arsenal.

Guardian batters merit pessimism tonight because they rank 27th in slugging .344 against these pitches from lefties.

Who Starts for Cleveland?

Cal Quantrill starts for the Guardians today. Similar to Lynch, Quantrill enters this game in strong form, and the "under" is tending to hit in his starts.

To be exact, Quantrill has allowed 1 earned run in 6 innings in both of his last starts.

His strong performances contributed to the fact that the "under" is 2-0 in these most recent starts.

Quantrill vs. Royals' Batters 

Primarily, Quantrill throws two pitches: his sinker and changeup. These two pitches combine to make up just over 81 percent of his arsenal.

He looks especially reliable tonight not just because he is pitching well against all his opponents but also because the Royals rank 28th in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics

Tuesday, October 04, 2022 - 09:40 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum

Who Starts for the Angels?

Michael Lorenzen starts for the Angels tonight. Some people refuse to trust a pitcher when he faces the same lineup a second consecutive time.

While Lorenzen did just face this Oakland team, he has successfully marched through this song and dance before.

On May 14, he allowed 1 run in 7 innings to the Athletics before shutting them down over the course of 6 innings in his following start.

Overall this season, Lorenzen has allowed 1 earned run in 18 innings pitched against the A's.

Lorenzen vs. Athletics' Batters 

Tonight's Angel starter should be expected to flourish against A batters because he matches up excellently against them.

Primarily, he throws a fastball, changeup, sinker, and slider. Oakland ranks second-to-last in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.

Who Starts for Oakland?

Cole Irvin starts for Oakland tonight. Crucially, Irvin matches up well against Angel batters in that they rank 28th against his favorite pitches from lefties.

While Irvin struggled in his last start, and this last start came against the Angels, he had allowed a combined total of 3 earned runs in 14 innings pitched against the Angels when he faced them consecutive times in August.

MLB Pick: Under 7 (-105) at BetOnline

MLB Parlay Verdict

With your MLB picks, expect low-scoring pitcher's duels in Cleveland and Oakland.

Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.

MLB Parlay Picks for Today

  • Royals vs. Guardians: Under 7.5 (-115)
  • Angels vs. Athletics: Under 7 (-105)

MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+265) at BetOnline

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.