MLB Parlay for Today at (+254) Includes Rays Chasing Playoff Spot

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Manuel Margot #13 of the Tampa Bay Rays reacts after striking out during the tenth inning against the Cleveland Guardians. Nick Cammett/Getty Images/AFP.

Top Sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Tampa Bay vs. Cleveland and Miami vs. Milwaukee.

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the money-line for the first game and the total for the second. Feel free to parlay both bets at top-rated sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.

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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians

Thursday, September 29, 2022 – 06:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field

Who Starts for Cleveland?

Cal Quantrill starts for the Guardians tonight. Quantrill was fortunate to face Texas in his last start. The anemic Ranger offense could not punish Quantrill for yielding an unusually high walk rate.

Moreover, Quantrill yielded hard contact at a significant rate, although he was fortunate to have yielded a .222 BABIP (batting average of balls in play).

His low quality of performance is reflected in his 5.45 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding). He has now yielded an FIP of over 5.40 in each of his last two starts.

Quantrill is rather a fly ball-inducing pitcher. The key for him is to keep the fly balls that he induces in the ballpark. But he has allowed a home run in each of his last three starts.

Quantrill vs. Rays' Batters 

Tampa Bay batters match up uniquely well against Quantrill in view of the pitches that he throws and the fact that he is right-handed.

Primarily, Quantrill throws a sinker and a cutter. He throws both of these pitches well over three times as often as he throws any other pitch.

Ray batters merit optimism tonight because they rank third in slugging .466 against these two pitches from righties.

While Quantrill owns a positive career ERA in two starts against Tampa Bay, he yielded an FIP of 4.00 or higher in both starts.

In view of its matchup advantage, one should expect Tampa Bay finally to punish him with runs tonight.

Who Starts for Tampa Bay?

Jeffrey Springs starts for the Rays tonight. Springs enters tonight's game in strong form, having yielded an FIP below 2.80 in four of his past five starts.

In the process, he has thrived individually against strong competition.

For example, he had to face Toronto twice in this short span of time, and the Blue Jays rank sixth in runs per game.

Springs vs. Guardians' Batters 

Cleveland poses a much softer test for Springs because of its constant struggles against left-handed pitching -- Springs is a lefty.

As measured by slugging rate, Cleveland ranks 29th against lefty pitching.

More specifically, the Guardians match up poorly against Springs also in view of the pitches that he throws.

Primarily, he favors his fastball, changeup, and slider. These three pitches combine to make up nearly 95% of his arsenal. Cleveland ranks 27th against these three pitches from lefties.

MLB Pick: Rays ML (-112) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Thursday, September 29, 2022 - 07:40 PM EDT at American Family Field

Left-Handed Pitching 

Tonight's game between Miami and Milwaukee presents a unique opportunity with which to bet the "under", because both teams are facing left-handed starting pitchers and both teams struggle mightily to hit them.

While Milwaukee ranks 27th in slugging .360 against left-handed pitchers, Miami ranks last in slugging .328 against them.

The fact that Milwaukee just scored 3 runs off a left-handed pitcher in a late-game triumph over St. Louis may seem to reveal promise for Brewer batters.

But that Cardinal left-handed pitcher was somebody with a 6.23 ERA who rarely gets to play professional baseball but had an opportunity to do so in a game that didn't mean anything to St. Louis.

Who Starts for Miami?

Braxton Garrett starts for Miami today. Pertinently to my Best Bet for this game, he has been a tremendous "under" pitcher. The "under" is hitting in 78.6% in his starts overall.

Tonight, Garrett continues to merit optimism because the Brewers rank 23rd in slugging against his favorite pitches, the slider, fastball, and sinker, from lefties.

Who Starts for Milwaukee?

Eric Lauer starts for the Brewers tonight. Lauer favors his fastball, cutter, slider, and curveball.

These three pitches combine for 96.9% of his arsenal. Miami batters look unreliable tonight because they rank 30th in slugging .296 against Lauer's favorite pitches from lefties.

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-115) at BetOnline

MLB Parlay Verdict 

With your MLB picks in mind, expect a strong win from Tampa Bay and a low-scoring game in Milwaukee.

Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.

MLB Parlay Picks

  • Rays ML (-112)
  • Marlins/Brewers Under 7.5 (-115)

MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+254) at BetOnline

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.