MLB Parlay for Today at (+250) Features a Low-Scoring Contest Between AL Central Rivals

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Yasmani Grandal #24 of the Chicago White Sox tags out Will Benson #29 of the Cleveland Guardians. Nick Cammett/Getty Images/AFP.

Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Guardians vs. White Sox and Cardinals vs. Padres.

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the total for the first game and the moneyline for the second. Feel free to parlay these bets at one of our best sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox

Wednesday, September 21, 2022 – 08:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field

Who Pitches for the Guardians Today?

Triston McKenzie starts for Cleveland today.

Pertinently to my best bet for this game, McKenzie is a strong "Under" pitcher. The "Under" is hitting in 59.3% of his starts overall.

McKenzie's Form

McKenzie's reliably strong play makes the "Under" a relatively competitive option when he starts.

Most recently, he is coming off two strong starts against fellow AL Central contender Minnesota. He lasted 7 innings in both of these consecutive starts while yielding a FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) below 2.70 in both starts.

McKenzie's Pitch Quality

Today's Guardians' starter is repeatedly liable to strike out more than 10 batters in a game. In his last start against the White Sox, he amassed 14 strikeouts while yielding a FIP that was superb enough to be negative (his FIP was -0.89 in that start).

He whiffs batters especially with his curveball, which is a tight pitch in terms of its limited movement and lack of spin.

Its strength is largely in the way he plays it off his other pitches. Particularly, he creates with this pitch stark changes in location and velocity that keeps the opposing batter off-balance. McKenzie likes to locate low his curveball in the strike zone, often after elevating his fastball.

The latter pitch, moreover, averages 13 mph than his fastball, creating the effect that batters' knees buckle when they encounter his curveball.

McKenzie Against White Sox' Batters

Chicago's batters cannot figure McKenzie out. This season, he is 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA in three starts against them.

One should expect White Sox' batters to struggle with him on the mound because they rank 23rd in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.

Who Pitches for the White Sox Today?

Lance Lynn starts for the White Sox today.

Lynn has normally been effective. He's allowed one run or zero runs in three of his last four starts.

Lynn Against Guardians' Batters

Primarily, Lynn throws a fastball, cutter, and sinker. These three pitches make up over 80% of his arsenal.

He matches up well against Guardians' batters in that they rank 29th against his favorite pitches from righties.

While one may counter that Guardians' batters are hot lately, they still only rank 23rd against Lynn's favorite pitches from righties since their excellent stretch of play commenced on September 9.

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres

Wednesday, September 21, 2022 - 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park

Who Pitches for the Cardinals Today?

Miles Mikolas starts for the Cardinals tonight.

St. Louis has lost the last two games in which he started even though those starts came against lowly Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.

He's been particularly bad for bettors to back in road games. The Cardinals are yielding -4.7 units in road games in which Mikolas starts.

Mikolas' Regression

Mikolas has been weaker in the entire second half of the season. While his FIP was 3.69 in the first half, it is 4.50 in the second.

He's striking out fewer batters while doing an awful job of limiting the long ball.

Who Pitches for the Padres Today?

Blake Snell starts for the Padres today.

After limiting Arizona in his last start to one run in 7 innings, Snell enters today's game in strong form. Snell has allowed one run or zero runs in three of his last four starts. He is a consistent threat to accumulate many strikeouts.

His fastball, for example, boasts a great combination of high velocity and high spin. It ranks in the 81st percentile in velocity and 91st in spin, ensuring that batters struggle to keep up with this pitch while they have trouble tracking its trajectory. But he actually whiffs batters at even higher rates with his slider and curveball.

Cardinals' Slump

St. Louis's batters are enduring a prolonged slump, which explains their most recent struggles to beat low-level teams like Washington, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati. The Cardinals have scored zero runs in their last three games through 9 innings.

MLB Pick: Padres ML (-120) at BetOnline

MLB Parlay Verdict

With your MLB picks in mind, expect a low-scoring contest between the Guardians and White Sox and a strong Padres' win.

For the above reasons, parlay the Guardians/White Sox "Under" with the Padres moneyline. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.

MLB Parlay Picks

  • Guardians vs. White Sox: Under 7.5 (-110)
  • Cardinals vs. Padres: Padres ML (-120)

MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+250) at BetOnline

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.