Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Brewers vs. Diamondbacks and Rockies vs. Braves.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the moneyline for the first game and the total for the second. Feel free to parlay these bets at one of our best sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Thursday, September 1, 2022 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
Who Pitches for the Brewers Today?
Brandon Woodruff starts for Milwaukee tonight.
Despite regularly being chalked rather heavily, Woodruff has been profitable for bettors to back. Overall, Milwaukee is yielding +2.8 units in his starts.
Pertinently to my best bet for this game, Woodruff has been a good favorite. The Brewers are yielding +2.8 units in starts in which he is favored.
Woodruff's most recent starts contribute to the fact that he is so profitable.
The Brewers have won the last four games in which he started with one of those wins coming against the Dodgers and another against Tampa Bay. During this four-game span, Woodruff allowed 3 runs a single time and otherwise allowed 2 runs or zero.
Going further, Woodruff has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in seven of his past eight starts.
Why Is Woodruff Difficult to Hit?
Lineups typically perform better against finesse pitchers than power pitchers. Woodruff, however, is not a finesse pitcher.
His fastball, which is his most frequent pitch, ranks in the 87th percentile. Given this pitch's positive combination of velocity and spin rate (his fastball also ranks in the 72nd percentile) opponents struggle to keep up with it and to track its location. Despite often landing in the more middle parts of the zone, Woodruff's fastball quality is strong enough to yield a .193 BA.
While he does have a tendency to give up home runs with this pitch that appears marked relative to the general difficulty that opponents have hitting it, Arizona is one of the worst teams both in terms of slugging rate and in terms of hitting home runs against the high-velocity (94-98 mph) fastball.
In general, Arizona merits pessimism tonight because it ranks below average against Woodruff's pitches from righties.
Who Pitches for the Diamondbacks Today?
Arizona starts Merrill Kelly tonight.
Kelly is a bit odd in that he has been a terrible bet specifically at home. In Arizona, his team is yielding -5.3 units when Kelly starts.
Kelly Against Brewers' Batters
Especially lately, Milwaukee is doing a good job of scoring runs. The Brewers have scored six or more runs in four of their past five games.
They look particularly reliable tonight because they rank fourth in slugging against Kelly's favorite pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: Brewers ML (-135) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves
Thursday, September 1, 2022 - 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
Who Pitches for the Rockies Today?
Colorado starts Chad Kuhl today.
Lately, Kuhl has been terribly unfortunate in that he has repeatedly been facing teams that he, historically, has a terrible track record against.
His worst recent start, for example, came against a Padres team against which he yields a 7.56 ERA in seven career starts.
Kuhl Against Braves' Batters
Out of all the teams that Kuhl has faced multiple times in his career, Atlanta is actually his favorite one. So, in this sense, Kuhl catches a break tonight.
He is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in three career starts against the Braves. Plus, nearly all of the Braves' players who have strong individual track records with Kuhl on the mound have debilitating asterisks attached to their names tonight.
Marcell Ozuna, for example, is suffering the worst season of his career as he did last year. Orlando Arcia is injured. Alex Dickerson is in the minors.
Who Pitches for the Braves Today?
Atlanta starts the ever-reliable Spencer Strider.
Strider has allowed one earned run in each of his last three starts and in five of his last six. The one exception came on the road against the challenging Mets.
Strider Against Rockies' Batters
Primarily, Strider throws a fastball and slider. His outlook is superb tonight because he matches up well against Colorado batters.
They slug .316 against these two pitches from righties away from home, despite typically encountering iterations of these pitches that are far inferior to Strider's.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (+100) at BetOnline
MLB Parlay Verdict
With your MLB picks, expect a strong win from Milwaukee and a low-scoring game in Atlanta.
For the above reasons, parlay the Brewers ML and the Rockies/Braves Under. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks
- Brewers vs. Diamondbacks: Brewers ML (-135)
- Rockies vs. Braves: Under 8 (+100)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+248) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.