Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in:
It may be tempting, upon seeing the starting pitcher matchups, to invest in the “Under” for both games. But for reasons that I will explain, you should play the side for both games.
Feel free to parlay these bets at top-rated sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Friday, October 07, 2022 – 04:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
Who Starts for Seattle?
Seattle starts Luis Castillo today. It might be tempting to bet the "under" because of Castillo's low ERA.
However, while Castillo's ERA shows that he is a great pitcher, the fact that he is a great pitcher is already baked into the posted total.
In other words, I don't see any value in the "under." To begin to explain why, consider this trend: the "over" is 3-1-1 in Castillo's starts this year when the over/under was 7.
For the "under" to hit in this game, both starting pitchers have minimal room for error.
If they don't match up well with the opposing lineup, then it is likely that they will allow too many runs for the "under" to safely hit.
I like Toronto because this concern applies especially to Castillo, Blue Jay batters match up excellently against him.
Castillo vs. Blue Jays' Batters
Castillo looks unreliable today because Blue Jay batters excel against the types of pitches which he throws.
He throws four different pitches: a fastball, sinker, changeup, and slider. These pitches make up his entire arsenal.
Toronto merits optimism today for ranking fourth in slugging .430 against Castillo's pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Toronto?
Alek Manoah starts for Toronto today. One significant advantage that Manoah has over Castillo is form: Manoah couldn't be pitching better right now.
Whereas Castillo allowed 4 earned runs or more in two of his last three starts, Manoah shut out both of his last opponents.
Manoah hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in a start in about seven weeks.
Manoah vs. Mariners' Batters
Additionally, Manoah has the advantage over Castillo of matching up well against opposing batters.
Manoah throws exclusively a fastball, slider, sinker, and changeup. Seattle batters, however, rank 13th in slugging against these pitches from righties.
Quality of Recent Competition
The difference between ranking 4th and 13th against the opposing pitcher's pitches might not seem immense.
What should intensify our perception of this difference is the fact that Toronto has repeatedly been facing stronger pitching in its most recent games.
Seattle has not been playing as well as it should while facing weaker competition. Uniquely, the Mariners' last five opponents ranked in the bottom 10 in team ERA.
They are, therefore, less prepared in several senses of the word to handle Toronto and its excellent starting pitcher.
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (-131) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Friday, October 07, 2022 - 02:07 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
The Total Is Too Low
But I find the total too low to justify an "under."
My strongest concern with the total comes from the fact that Quintana is left-handed.
His worst games, against Atlanta, for example, came against the best lefty-hitting teams.
Philadelphia merits optimism for being such a team, the Phillies rank sixth in slugging against left-handed pitching.
Quintana vs. Phillies' Batters
Quintana's negative track record against several Philly batters underscores my point.
Rhys Hoskins, Yairo Munoz, JT Realmuto, and Jean Segura slug .571 or better in at least seven at-bats against the Cardinal lefty.
Wheeler vs. Cardinals' Batters
Conversely, Wheeler tends to excel against St. Louis. His 2.65 career ERA against the Cardinals is reflected in the fact that Cardinal batters have poor track records against him.
Only one batter, Paul DeJong, slugs over .364 in at least three at-bats against Wheeler. But DeJong is totally unreliable because of the uniquely long and atrocious slump he's been mired in.
Batting under .200 for a second straight year, his BA is .157 this season, DeJong is not a source of hope for Cardinal bats.
MLB Pick: Phillies ML (-103) at BetOnline
MLB Parlay Verdict
With your MLB picks, forget the low totals and play the side for both games. For the above reasons, expect strong wins from Toronto and Philadelphia.
Each team's starting pitcher will go deep, which justifies full-game investments in each team, although I am totally fine with parlaying both teams on the first-half money-line, as well.
Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks for Today
- Blue Jays ML (-131)
- Phillies ML (-103)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+248) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.