Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks and Braves vs. Giants.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the run line for both games. Feel free to parlay these bets at one of our best sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Monday, September 12, 2022 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
Who Pitches for the Dodgers Today?
Tyler Anderson starts for the Dodgers tonight.
Despite repeatedly being listed as the favored pitcher (Anderson was listed as the underdog one time this season), Anderson is his team's most profitable pitcher to back. Overall, the Dodgers are yielding +11.3 units in his starts.
Pertinently to my best bet for this game, Anderson is thriving against the teams that are most familiar with him, his division rivals. Of course, Anderson probably benefits all the same from being familiar with fellow NL West clubs. In his starts against these teams, L.A. is 8-2, yielding +4.9 units.
Anderson Against Diamondbacks' Batters
One might be skeptical of a pitcher who faces the same lineup multiple times in that lineups do tend to benefit from having recently faced a pitcher and then seeing that same pitcher again.
But this tendency has not hurt Anderson, who in his last start lasted 7 innings and collected the win against a San Francisco squad that had faced him a month prior.
Moreover, Anderson has not faced the Diamondbacks since May. Tellingly, he saw them twice in a two-week span and thrived both times. On May 17, he allowed 2 runs in 7 innings to Arizona before shutting out the same team over the course of 6 innings in Phoenix.
Good Spot for Anderson
Moreover, Anderson is in a strong spot. He tends to buckle down and play with extra concentration after surrendering multiple home runs in his last start. Surrendering multiple home runs will injure the pride of any pitcher, and Anderson responds accordingly.
After allowing 2 homers on May 12, he allowed 2 runs in 7 innings in his first start of the season against Arizona. Similarly, on May 23, he shut down the Nationals in 8 innings of work after allowing 2 homers in his previous start.
So, expect an Anderson to be at his best who has proven to be reliably effective against Diamondbacks' batters.
Who Pitches for the Diamondbacks Today?
Ryne Nelson starts for Arizona tonight.
Nelson is a rookie who was called up on September 5 to make his MLB debut. The thing to know about Nelson is that he loves his fastball. As is common with younger pitchers, they have yet to develop much of a varied arsenal.
Similar to guys like Nick Pivetta, German Marquez, and others when they were younger, Nelson lacks another pitch that he's comfortable executing.
Dodgers' Batters Outlook Today
This lack of variety will make him easier for any lineup to figure him out. But the Dodgers won't need much time to get to Nelson because they are an excellent fastball-hitting team.
They rank third in slugging .492 against the fastball from righties. Plus, they already enjoy superb hitting form. In six of their last eight games, they've scored 8 runs or more.
MLB Pick: Dodgers RL -1.5 (-138) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants
Monday, September 12, 2022 - 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Who Pitches for the Braves Today?
Spencer Strider starts for the Braves tonight.
Atlanta has won the last five games in which Strider started. Overall, he is now a profitable pitcher for bettors to back.
He has been especially strong as a favorite. In games in which Strider is listed as the favored pitcher, Atlanta is 12-4, yielding +3.8 units.
Strider's individual quality largely explains Atlanta's especially recent success in games in which he starts. He has allowed 2 runs or fewer in each of his last five games, despite facing teams that match up excellently against him on paper.
Slumping San Francisco
One might perceive San Francisco to be more reliable now for supposedly ending its ongoing slump.
After scoring 3 runs or fewer in five straight losses, the Giants hit Cubs' starter, Marcus Stroman, fairly hard. But Stroman is primarily a ground ball-inducing pitcher.
Besides being simply much better than Stroman, Strider benefits from being a fly ball-inducing pitcher. As measured by slugging rate, the Giants are vastly stronger against ground ball-inducing pitchers than fly ball-inducing ones.
Who Pitches for the Giants Today?
Alex Cobb starts for the Giants tonight.
Besides failing to match Strider in terms of form, Cobb is disadvantaged tonight matchup-wise. Atlanta ranks fifth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: Braves RL -1.5 (-105) at BetOnline
MLB Parlay Verdict
With your MLB picks, expect strong wins from the Dodgers and Braves.
For the above reasons, I recommend parlaying both teams on the run line. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks for Today
- Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks: Dodgers RL -1.5 (-138)
- Braves vs. Giants: Braves RL -1.5 (-105)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+237) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.