MLB Parlay for Today at +223 Features an Incredible Pitcher’s Duel in Houston

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Julio Urias #7 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP.

Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action.

Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Diamondbacks vs. Astros and Dodgers vs. Padres.

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the total for the first game and the money-line for the second.

Feel free to parlay both bets at top-rated sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros

Wednesday, September 28, 2022 – 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park in Houston

Who Starts for Arizona?

Zac Gallen starts for the Diamondbacks tonight. Pertinently to my Best Bet for this game, Zac Gallen is mostly an "under" pitcher.

While this is true overall, the "under" s hitting in 55.56 percent of all his starts, it is especially true when he pitches outside of Arizona and when he is listed as the underdog.

For example, on June 21 he was listed as the underdog in San Diego, and the "under" hit in that game. What was particularly interesting about that game was that the posted total was 6.5, as it currently is for this contest.

Evidently, 6.5 is not too high of a total. As I will explain, we also get a stronger pair of starting pitchers because Gallen's counterpart tonight will be Houston's Justin Verlander, whereas San Diego's Sean Manaea was the other pitcher in that June 21 contest.

Gallen's Form 

Gallen enters tonight's game in incredible form. He has allowed one run or zero runs in seven of his last nine starts.

Moreover, he has yielded an FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) below 1.60 in four of his past five starts.

His command has been spot-on as evident in the rarity with which he concedes walks or home runs. Clearly, runs do not come cheaply against him.

Matchup Considerations 

Moreover, Gallen is thriving even against teams that match up well against him on paper.

For example, he just held the Dodgers to 2 hits and 1 run in his last start even though they rank third in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.

Gallen owns a nice mixture of pitches. But opponents bat less than .170 against his two favorite ones in particular, his fastball and cutter, which he throws about 70 percent of the time.

Who Starts for Houston?

Justin Verlander starts for the Astros tonight. Similar to Gallen, Verlander is a reliable "under" pitcher.

As in his last start, he gets dealt a 6.5 or other low posted totals, and it still turns out that the "over" is a bad bet. Overall, the "under" is hitting in 80 percent of his starts.

Verlander's Form 

The "under" has hit in each of his last four starts. His form largely explains this trend.

He has allowed a combined total of 2 runs during this four-game stretch. His FIP was under 1.80 in these four starts.

MLB Pick: Diamondbacks/Astros Under 6.5 (-115) at BetOnline

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres

Wednesday, September 28, 2022 - 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park in San Diego

Who Starts for the Dodgers?

Julio Urias starts for the Dodgers tonight. Urias enters tonight's contest in strong form.

He has allowed 1 run or fewer in eight of his past nine starts. Urias is an example of a pitcher who gives up home runs but does so unproblematically.

While he consistently will allow a home run in a game, he is yielding solo home runs.

He is more aggressive when there aren't any baserunners because the penalty for allowing a home run in this situation is obviously as low as possible, he just allows 1 run.

Urias vs. Padres Batters 

Hence, against San Diego, he has allowed 3 home runs this season but only 4 earned runs.

His numbers against the Padres are indeed excellent, and they make him reliable tonight. In three starts against them, he is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA.

Who Starts for San Diego?

When facing the Dodgers, Joe Musgrove does not share Urias' consistent level of success that Urias has when he faces the Padres.

Most critically, Dodger batters match up excellently against Musgrove. They rank fourth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.

MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (-137) at BetOnline

MLB Parlay Verdict

Tonight offers a nice opportunity to back Urias at an inexpensive price.

With your MLB picks, expect a strong Dodger win and a low-scoring pitcher's duel in Houston.

Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.

MLB Parlay Picks

  • Diamondbacks/Astros Under 6.5 (-115)
  • Dodgers ML (-137)

MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+223) at BetOnline

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.