Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: the Marlins vs. Mets and Tigers vs. White Sox.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the moneyline for the first game and the total for the second. Feel free to parlay both bets at one of our best sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Thursday, July 07, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
Who Pitches for the Marlins Today?
Miami starts lefty Daniel Castano. Despite only making four starts, Castano is Miami's second-most profitable pitcher.
He is yielding +2.3 units overall. Officially, he is 1-0 as a starter. His Marlins, however, are 3-1 in his starts.
Castano's Favorite Pitches
Castano possesses a rather unique pitching arsenal.
His favorite pitch to throw is a cutter. He throws this pitch 45% of the time. Heat maps illustrate the extent to which Castano succeeds in locating his cutter away from the more hittable parts of the strike zone.
Besides locating it well, Castano puts a nice amount of spin on it. Thus, in addition to struggling to reach his cutter with their bat, hitters have trouble tracking its trajectory. Moreover, Castano's cutter is tight. In contrast to its spin rate, its movement is limited.
Given its features, opponents hit .196 against this pitch. Crucially, Castano is therefore intelligent with his pitch selection because he throws effective stuff most often.
Besides a cutter, Castano features a slider. This is, by far, his second-favorite pitch. He throws it with 27.7% frequency.
His slider is his best whiff pitch because of its typically low and borderline location and because of its high spin rate.
Mets' Batters Against Castano
I like Castano today because he matches up well with New York given the pitches that he prefers to throw.
The Mets rank 25th in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Who Pitches for the Mets Today?
Today, New York starts Trevor Williams. Throughout the season, Williams has been bouncing between his team's starting rotation and the bullpen.
His longest outing was 5 innings this season. It is much more common for him to endure fewer innings.
Marlins' Batters Against Williams
However, because he can pitch the bulk of today's innings for his team and because he'll certainly try to, it remains decisive to know how Marlins' batters match up with him.
Typical of relievers, Williams' pitching arsenal lacks variety. He favors one pitch most extensively. By far, his favorite pitch is his fastball. Marlins' batters look promising today because they rank eighth in slugging against this pitch.
With both bullpens about equal in terms of FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) and with Miami's bullpen having effective guys like Jimmy Yacabonis ready to go, Miami's advantage in starting pitching will be what decides this game.
MLB Pick: Marlins ML (+138) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Thursday, July 07, 2022 - 08:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field
Who Pitches for the Tigers Today?
Detroit starts Beau Brieske tonight. Brieske is coming off a bit of a tough-luck outing against the Royals in which he yielded a 4.50 ERA despite doing a superb job of limiting hard contact.
His 3.61 FIP in that outing reflects the fact that he performed much better individually. Before that outing, he had to pitch in Arizona with its difficult dry climate and intimidating Fenway Park.
Brieske's Favorite Pitches
Primarily, Brieske throws a fastball, changeup, and slider. These are the three pitches that he throws over 5% of the time, and he throws each one with more than 19% frequency.
Brieske's favorite pitch is his fastball which he distributes well throughout the strike zone. He puts a solid amount of spin on this pitch, often elevating it in the strike zone in order to give it the appearance of rising action, thus inducing batters to swing underneath it.
Then, he'll play this pitch well off his other primary stuff by locating his other favorite pitchers low in the strike zone, thereby changing the batter's eye level.
White Sox' Batters Against Brieske
For matchup-related reasons, Brieske's test will be significantly easier today.
Brieske matches up well with White Sox' batters because they rank 28th in slugging against his three favorite pitches from righties.
Who Pitches for the White Sox Today?
Chicago starts Dylan Cease, who has yielded one earned run or fewer in each of his last seven starts.
In addition to showing strong form, Cease matches up well with Tigers' batters. They rank last in slugging against Cease's favorite pitches.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-123) at BetOnline
MLB Parlay Verdict
For your MLB picks, expect a Marlins' upset win and a pitchers' duel in Chicago.
For the above reasons, parlay the Marlins ML with the Tigers/White Sox under. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks for Today
- Marlins ML (+138)
- Under 8.5 (-123)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+331) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.