Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Phillies vs. Pirates, Mariners vs. Astros, and Dodgers vs. Rockies.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the run line for the first game and the total for the second and third. Feel free to parlay both bets at one of our best sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Thursday, July 28, 2022 – 07:05 PM EDT at PNC Park
Who Is Pitching for the Phillies Today?
Philadelphia starts Zack Wheeler tonight.
It is true that Wheeler has not been profitable for bettors to back. However, one must consider how many difficult lineups he's had to deal with.
A third of his starts this year have come against teams that rank top-five in runs per game. His opponent tonight, Pittsburgh, will be a vastly easier test than what he's used to facing.
Wheeler Against Pirates' Batters
Wheeler matches up well against Pirates' batters given the pitches that he throws.
Primarily, he throws a fastball, slider, and sinker. These three pitches make up, together, almost 90% of his arsenal.
Pittsburgh ranks 26th in slugging against Wheeler's pitches from righties.
Who Is Pitching for the Pirates Today?
Pittsburgh starts Zach Thompson.
The Pirates are 0-3 in Thompson's starts against NL East opponents. His last start, in fact, came against a Marlins' squad that accrued 7 runs against him in Pittsburgh.
Philadelphia isn't favored so heavily because it is playing on the road, although Thompson's season stats indicate the lack of advantage that he derives from starting at home.
MLB Pick: Phillies -1.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Thursday, July 28, 2022 - 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
Who Is Pitching for the Mariners Today?
Seattle starts Logan Gilbert tonight. Part of the reason why Gilbert is enjoying the best season of his career is the improvement that he has made in terms of limiting home runs. He also does a great job of mixing up different velocities and locations.
His favorite pitch is his fastball, which averages a solid 96 mph. Gilbert likes to elevate this pitch while locating his other favorite pitches, his slider, curveball, and changeup, much lower while having them average at least 10 fewer mph than his fastball.
Pertinently to my best bet for this game, the "Under" has a strong tendency to hit when he faces division rivals, the teams that know best. When Gilbert starts against a fellow AL West team, the "Under" is 6-2-1.
Gilbert Against Astros' Batters
This season, Gilbert is cultivating a terrific track record the Astros.
He enjoys a 2.37 ERA after three starts against them so far.
Who Is Pitching for the Astros Today?
Houston starts Jose Urquidy tonight.
Urquidy is not quite as well-known for his velocity as Gilbert is. However, he puts more spin on his pitches, which makes it harder for batters to track their location.
Urquidy Against Mariners' Batters
By far, Urquidy's favorite pitch is his fastball. Overall this season, the M's rank below average in slugging against this pitch.
One might surmise that they've improved against this pitch since their win percentage began skyrocketing.
However, since their great turnaround began on June 21, they rank 26th in slugging .378 against his favorite pitch from righties.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-115) at BetOnline
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Thursday, July 28, 2022 - 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
Who Is Pitching for the Dodgers Today?
Los Angeles starts Tyler Anderson tonight. Anderson matches up poorly with Colorado because he is a lefty. As measured by slugging rate, the Rockies have the third best lineup against lefty pitching.
More specifically, his favorite pitches are easily his fastball, changeup, and cutter. These three pitches combine to make up nearly 90% of his arsenal.
Colorado ranks first in slugging against these three pitches from lefties, and it isn't close.
Who Is Pitching for the Rockies Today?
Colorado starts Jose Urena tonight. Dodgers' batters match up well against him given the pitches that he likes to throw.
His most frequent pitches are his sinker, slider, and changeup. These three pitches make up just over 90% of his arsenal. L.A. ranks sixth in slugging against these three pitches from righties.
High velocity distinguishes Urena's sinker from other sinkers. Crucially, because he throws it over three times as often as any of his other pitches, the Dodgers rank first in slugging against the 93-98 mph sinker from righties.
MLB Pick: Over 12 (-107) at BetOnline
MLB Parlay Verdict
With your MLB picks, expect a strong win from Philadelphia, a pitcher's duel in Houston, and a slugfest in Denver.
For the above reasons, parlay the Phillies run line, the Under and the Over. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks for Today
- Phillies vs. Pirates: Phillies -1.5 (-115)
- Mariners vs. Astros: Under 8 (-115)
- Dodgers vs. Rockies: Over 12 (-107)
MLB Pick: Three-Legged Parlay (+576) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.