MLB Parlay for July 26: A Bet That Pays (+262)

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Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Marlins vs. Reds and Rays vs. Orioles.

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the moneyline in the first game and the total in the second. Feel free to parlay both bets at one of our best sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.

Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds

Tuesday, July 26, 2022 – 06:40 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park

Who Is Pitching for the Marlins Today?

Tonight, Miami starts Pablo Lopez, its third most profitable pitcher.

Pertinently to my best bet for this game, Lopez has been a particularly good bet on the road. Miami is yielding +2.9 units in his road starts this season.

Lopez's Streak After a Loss

Lopez is in a great spot tonight. Recency bias would lead (or rather mislead) us to go against Lopez because his most recent start was awful. However, Lopez has a consistent history of bouncing back with a strong performance after collecting the loss in his previous start.

In four starts immediately following a loss, he is 2-0. His worst start following a loss came when he allowed 2 earned runs in 6.1 innings in Washington. He also allowed zero earned runs in 7 innings against Colorado, zero earned runs in 6 innings in Colorado, and zero earned runs in 8 innings in San Diego.

Clearly, Lopez is at his best when he is pitching after taking the loss in his last start.

Who Is Pitching for the Reds Today?

Cincinnati starts the ever-unreliable Hunter Greene.

The Reds are yielding -9.1 units in his starts this year, making him his team's least profitable pitcher.

While he has suffered fewer failures during the day, the Reds are 1-9, yielding -8.0 units in his night starts.

Greene's Problems 

Greene's poor individual quality contributes to his unreliability. In particular, location is a major problem for him.

Hence, he walks 3.99 batters per 9 innings, gives up a lot of home runs, and as heat maps show, has a dangerous tendency to leave pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone.

Bullpen Differential

On top of the significant disparity in starting pitcher quality, there exists another one in bullpen quality.

As measured by FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) Cincinnati has baseball's worst bullpen, and it isn't even close.

Conversely, Miami ranks top-10 in the category.

MLB Pick: Marlins ML (-107) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles

Tuesday, July 26, 2022 - 07:05 PM EDT at Oriole Park

Who Is Pitching for the Rays Today?

Tampa Bay starts reliable lefty Shane McClanahan. Because of his reliability, McClanahan is a strong "Under" pitcher. The "Under" is hitting in 70.6% of his starts overall and in 76.9% of his starts in which his team is favored.

McClanahan's reliability is evident in his most recent play. He has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last four starts, even mastering Boston in Fenway Park.

McClanahan is actually winless in every AL East ballpark besides Baltimore's, and Tampa Bay's, of course. He is 2-0 in two career starts in Baltimore. Overall, he is 4-0 with a 2.30 ERA in five career starts against the O's.

McClanahan vs. Orioles' Batters

Tampa Bay's southpaw matches up well against Baltimore given his pitching arsenal.

He throws a fastball, curveball, and changeup. These are, by far, his three favorite pitches. Together, they make up nearly 85% of his arsenal. 

Problematically for the Orioles, they rank 10th-worst in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.

Who Is Pitching for the Orioles Today?

Baltimore starts Spenser Watkins tonight.

Similar to McClanahan, Watkins enjoys superb form. He has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last four starts.

Watkins vs. Rays' Batters 

Given the pitches he likes to throw, Watkins matches up well against Tampa Bay.

Primarily, Watkins throws a fastball, cutter, and slider. These three pitches make up nearly 85% of his arsenal.

Tampa Bay, however, ranks 24th against his favorite pitches from righties. Expect little, for example, from Ji-Man Choi. His BA has dropped .19 and his slugging rate has dropped .45 since July 3.

MLB Pick: Under 8 (-115) at BetOnline

MLB Parlay Verdict 

With your MLB picks in mind, expect a strong win from Miami and a pitcher's duel in Baltimore.

For the above reasons, parlay the Marlins ML with the Under.  Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.

MLB Parlay Picks

  • Marlins vs. Reds: Marlins ML (-107)
  • Rays vs. Orioles: Under 8 (-115)

MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+262) at BetOnline

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.