It’s Monday and we have a great parlay to get the week started on a winning note. The top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action.
Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in:
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the run-line for both games.
Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Monday, July 25, 2022 – 08:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
Who Starts for Colorado?
Colorado starts Kyle Freeland today. Freeland is notorious for struggling to pitch in day games. This year, his ERA is nearly 2.00 higher during the day than at night.
His daytime struggles have hurt Colorado. Whereas the Rockies are yielding -0.3 units in Freeland's daytime starts, they're yielding +3 units in his nighttime starts.
Moreover, also pertinently to my best bet for this game, Freeland thrives in the underdog role. So far, the Rockies are yielding +4.2 units in Freeland's starts when he's the underdog. They've garnered some impressive underdog wins with Freeland as the starter. Victims include the Padres and Dodgers.
While Freeland might seem to be suffering top form given his recent starts, he's had tough luck having to face division rivals, teams that know him most intimately.
Also, he's had to face top-level lineups like the Dodgers' and he's had to face the same team multiple times in a brief span. His last two starts against teams outside his division were excellent, though.
Freeland's Favorite Pitches
Freeland is not simply the fastball-slider guy that one expects a Rockie pitcher to be. In fact, he doesn't throw a single pitch more than 24 percent of the time.
Each pitch's usage frequency ranges between 15 and 24 percent.
Freeland vs. Brewer Batters
As has been the case in recent years before this one, Milwaukee is not as built to handle left-handed pitching.
Overall, Milwaukee ranks 25th in slugging against left-handed pitchers. More closely, the Brewers rank 23rd in slugging against Freeland's five pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Milwaukee?
Milwaukee starts Aaron Ashby, its second-least profitable pitcher. Recent history largely explains why Ashby is costing his backers. The Brewers have lost six of the last seven games in which Ashby started.
A couple of those losses were really disappointing. One loss came against Pittsburgh and the other against Washington. On the season, Milwaukee is yielding -3.8 units in his starts.
Ashby vs. Rockie Batters
Colorado is in a great spot tonight because Ashby is a lefty and it owns one of the best lefty-hitting lineups. The Rockies rank fourth in slugging against lefties.
One reason for their success against lefties is Jose Iglesias. Iglesias is slugging .442 against them. Colorado also matches up well against Ashby in view of his pitching repertoire. Primarily, he throws
These three pitches make up nearly 85 percent of his arsenal. The Rockies rank 5th in slugging against these pitches from lefties.
Colorado is coming off a wild, tight loss to this team. It will be extra desperate to achieve victory tonight because it wants to avoid an embarrassing four-game sweep.
San Diego Padres vs. Detroit Tigers
Monday, July 25, 2022 - 07:10 PM EDT at Comerica Park in Detroit
Who Starts for San Diego?
San Diego starts Sean Manaea tonight. Most of San Diego's starting pitchers are profitable to back, but Manaea isn't one of them.
Most problematically for their chances tonight, the Padres are yielding -1.6 units in his road starts.
Manaea vs. Rockie Batters
Statistically speaking, the southpaw Manaea is enduring one of the worst seasons in his career. Among other things, he has serious issues with command.
In addition to suffering a high walk rate, heat maps illustrate the concerning extent to which he leaves his favorite pitches in the more middle, hittable parts of the strike zone.
Manaea merits extra pessimism today because, in view of his pitching arsenal, he matches up terribly against Tiger batters. He is a sinker-baller. His favorite pitch is by far his sinker.
However, the Tigers rank ninth in slugging against Manaea's pitch from lefties.
Who Starts for Detroit?
Detroit starts Drew Hutchison with his fastball-slider combo. These two pitches make up over 80 percent of his arsenal.
He promises to thrive tonight because the Padres rank 22nd against his two favorite pitches from righties.
With your MLB picks, expect strong wins from the Rockies and Tigers.
Since both teams are such heavy underdogs, one can take them +1.5 in order to get an extra run at a price that's still attractive.
For the above reasons, parlay both teams on the run-line. Be sure to use our free parlay calculator for your betting needs.
- Rockies +1.5 (-125)
- Tigers +1.5 (-120)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.