Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Padres vs. Rockies and Astros vs. Angels.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the moneyline for both games. Feel free to parlay both bets at one of our best sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Thursday, July 14, 2022 – 03:10 PM EDT at Coors Field
Who Is Pitching for the Padres Today?
The Padres start Blake Snell who is by far their least profitable pitcher. On the season, San Diego is 1-8 and yielding -8.6 units in his starts.
Pertinently to my best bet for this game, the Padres are 0-4 and yielding -4.4 units in his road starts.
Snell's poor performances help explain the extent to which he's been costing his backers. As it was last year, his walk rate is awful. He really struggles to find the strike zone. To be exact, he throws pitches in the strike zone with 36.7% frequency.
When he does find the strike zone, he often locates his pitches in the parts of the strike zone, around the middle of it, where batters tend to thrive the most. As heat maps show, this harmful tendency is especially true of his fastball, slider, and curveball.
He actually throws these pitches most often. His three favorite pitches in terms of frequency, combine to make up nearly 93% of his pitching arsenal. When facing Snell, batters thus regularly get to swing at pitches whose location they find favorable.
Rockies' Batters Against Snell
Snell looks particularly unreliable today because he matches up poorly against Colorado given the fact that he is a lefty and given the pitches which he throws.
Colorado is one of the best lefty-hitting teams. The Rockies own the fifth-highest slugging rate against left-handed pitchers. Moreover, they rank fifth in slugging against Snell's three favorite pitches from lefties.
In particular, who look out for CJ Cron, who was one-for-one in yesterday's game. Cron is 7-for-15 (.467) with a double and a homer in his career facing Snell. There are plenty of other lefty-hitting threats in Colorado's lineup, but consider boosting your wager amount if Cron, who is listed day-to-day despite hitting yesterday, plays.
Who Is Pitching for the Rockies Today?
Colorado starts Kyle Freeland who is a profitable pitcher.
Most prominently, Colorado yields +2.3 units in his home starts and +4.8 units in his starts against division rivals.
More Reasons to Dislike the Padres
The Padres' lineup merits pessimism because it ranks below-average against Freeland's solid variety of pitches from lefties.
Moreover, despite being favored on the road, the Padres are not the team that they used to be. They are 6-12 in their last 18 games.
MLB Pick: Rockies ML (+118) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
Thursday, July 14, 2022 - 08:07 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Who Is Pitching for the Astros Today?
Houston starts Framber Valdez today. It is a good sign that Valdez is pitching at night today because he is terribly unprofitable on the road, but the Astros are yielding +2.22 units in his night starts.
Moreover, Valdez displays a strong form. He's allowed a combined total of four runs in his past three games. In one of those games, he endured 6 innings, and he lasted 8 innings in both of the other two.
Angels' Batters Against Valdez
Tonight, Valdez looks particularly promising because he matches up well against L.A. given the pitches he throws.
Primarily, Valdez throws a sinker and curveball. These pitches combine to make up almost 80% of his arsenal. The Angels rank 26th in slugging against his pitches from lefties.
Who Is Pitching for the Angels Today?
Los Angeles starts Reid Detmers tonight, its least profitable pitcher. L.A. has lost the last seven games in which Detmers started.
On the season, Detmers is yielding -7.4 units overall and -5.3 units in his seven home starts.
Astros' Batters Against Detmers
Detmers will struggle tonight because he matches up terribly against Astros' batters.
Primarily, he throws a fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. These pitches make up just over 99% of his arsenal.
Houston ranks fourth in slugging against these pitches from lefties.
Houston's Team Form
The Astros look especially solid tonight because they are a strong bounce-back team.
They are 7-0 in their last seven games following a loss.
MLB Pick: Astros ML (-151) at BetOnline
MLB Parlay Verdict
With your MLB picks, expect strong wins from Colorado and Houston.
For the above reasons, parlay both teams on the moneyline. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks for Today
- Padres vs. Rockies: Rockies ML (+118)
- Astros vs. Angels: Astros ML (-151)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+264) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.