Today’s baseball card offers a lot to like. But chalk bettors won’t have a good time.
The top sportsbooks have released their odds for today’s baseball action, and two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in:
- Rockies vs. Mets
- Cubs vs. Brewers
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the side for both games. Feel free to parlay both bets at your preferred online sports betting site in order to maximize your profit.
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets
Saturday, August 27, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
Who Starts for Colorado?
Overall, Colorado is yielding +5.8 units for its backers in his starts.
In particular, Freeland has been a great underdog. The Rockies are generating +7.3 units for their backers when Freeland starts.
Freeland's Various Pitches
Freeland's pitching arsenal is characterized by a unique degree of variety. He throws five pitches between 15 and 24 percent of the time.
His higher comfort level with multiple different pitches allows him to emphasize any smaller number of pitches in a given start depending on which ones his opponent tends to hit less well and on which ones may be working well or poorly for him.
Variety in pitch location complements his variety in pitch type, one thing that he will do often, is elevate his fastball, as heat maps show.
Elevating his fastball is useful to him because he places a lot of spin on this pitch. In terms of spin rate, Freeland's fastball ranks in the 81st percentile.
When he elevates this pitch, it gains the appearance of rising action, which induces batters to swing underneath it.
Moreover, he has several pitches, his curveball, for example, which he gladly locates low in the strike zone. He disturbs the batter by changing his eye level when he plays these multiple pitches off his fastball.
Freeland in Queens
Tonight, Freeland is in a strong spot because he is pitching in the Mets' venue.
Here, he enjoys a 1.93 career ERA in two starts.
Who Starts for the Mets?
New York starts David Peterson today. Similar to several Rockie batters, Peterson features a fastball-slider combo.
Perhaps more so, Colorado batters will be very comfortable against Peterson because he is left-handed.
Compared to the Mets, Colorado ranks 15 spots higher in slugging rate against lefties.
Peterson is very much a ground ball-inducing pitcher. He induces grounders with 52.8% frequency.
This, too, provides a source of comfort to Rockie batters in that, in terms of slugging rate, they are at their best against ground ball-inducing pitchers.
In addition to featuring a fastball and slider, Peterson often throws a changeup and sinker. Together, these four pitches make up over 95% of his arsenal.
The Rockies rank sixth in slugging against these four pitches from lefties.
MLB Pick: Rockies ML (+216) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Saturday, August 27, 2022 - 07:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
Who Starts for Chicago?
Chicago starts Drew Smyly today. Especially lately, opponents have had a difficult time scoring runs off him.
Smyly has allowed a combined total of three runs in his past four games.
In the process, he has thrived even against teams, such as St. Louis, that normally excel against left-handed pitching.
Smyly favors three pitches: his curveball, sinker, and cutter make up 99.5% of his arsenal. His pitch selection is intelligent in that he throws his curveball most often and it is his best pitch.
Opponents see it almost half the time and slug .349 against it. In addition to a strong and typically low location, this pitch enjoys unique degrees of horizontal and vertical movement.
Smyly vs. Brewer Batters
Albeit limited in size, Smyly enjoys an eminently promising history against Milwaukee.
He is 1-0 with a 1.00 ERA in two career starts against the Brewers.
Tonight, he appears especially promising because the Brewers rank 29th in slugging .298 against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Milwaukee?
Brandon Woodruff starts for the Brewers tonight.
The Cubs just saw him, and in his last start against them, Woodruff was fortunate to yield a .154 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite barely being able to induce soft contact.
His 7.01 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start reflects how poorly he performed.
Woodruff's poor form —he has yielded an FIP of well over 5.00 in each of his last three starts— further diminishes the confidence one should have in him tonight.
MLB Pick: Cubs ML (+179) at BetOnline
For today's MLB Picks, keep in mind that we can expect the Rockies and Cubs to achieve upset victories on the road.
For the above reasons, parlay both teams on the moneyline. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
- Rockies ML (+216)
- Cubs ML (+179)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+782) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.