Today’s baseball card offers a ton to like! The top-rated sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action and two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in:
- Mariners vs. Guardians
- Yankees vs. Rays
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the moneyline for both games.
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians
Friday, September 02, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
Who Starts for Seattle?
Luis Castillo starts for Seattle today. Both starting pitchers for this game, Castillo included, have the disadvantage of facing a lineup that just saw them.
But the change in venue –from his last start taking place in Seattle to starting now in Cleveland– must weigh against Castillo tonight.
While Castillo has been strong in Seattle, he has been uniquely awful in Cleveland's venue throughout his career.
He is 0-3 with a 7.85 ERA in four career starts in Cleveland.
Who Starts for Cleveland?
Zach Plesac starts for Cleveland today. While Plesac's high ERA may make him appear unreliable, a closer examination of his season performance reveals a more nuanced reality.
A righty himself, Plesac has been much better against same-handed batters.
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) against them is 3.69.
But lefties are destroying him. Whereas righties slug .390 against him, lefties are slugging .454 with him on the mound. In a similar vein, he's yielding a BA of nearly .50 higher against lefties than against righties.
Plesac vs. Right-Handed Batters
Seattle is not built to hit Plesac well because it does not feature dangerous left-handed batters.
The best Mariner whom Plesac will encounter batting on the left side of the plate is certainly switch-hitter Sam Haggerty. But Haggerty thrives against left-handed pitching, whereas he slugs .305 against right-handed pitching.
The same distinction applies to catcher Cal Raleigh.
Therefore, Seattle's top seven leaders in slugging rate are either right-handed batters or switch-hitters who are much better against left-handed pitching than right-handed.
Plesac vs. Mariner Batters
Only one Mariner hitter can boast, in any sense, a strong track record against Plesac: Eugenio Suarez.
But, Suarez included, no Mariner hitter has more than two hits in his career against Plesac.
One should expect little from Mariner batters because they rank below average in slugging against Plesac's favorite pitches from righties.
This matchup help suggests a Cleveland victory tonight, as does the following bonus trend: the Guardians are 6-1 in their last seven series openers at home. The one loss came to Houston.
MLB Pick: Guardians ML (+128) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Friday, September 02, 2022 - 07:10 PM EDT at Tropicana Field
Who Starts for New York?
Domingo German starts for the Yankees tonight. German has been awful for bettors to back.
While this is true given his overall units yielded, it is most especially true in his road starts.
New York is 0-5, yielding -6.3 units when German starts on the road.
German vs. Ray Batters
Tampa Bay's venue is historically one of German's least favorite ones in which to compete as he suffers an 8.36 career ERA in four appearances and three starts here.
In addition to location, the timing of this game further indicates that German will struggle tonight.
Since August 20, unlike the Yankees, Tampa Bay has been on a tear as a team. During this most recent stretch of games, the Rays are 9-2.
Also during this stretch, they rank first by far in slugging rate against German's favorite pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Tampa Bay?
Jeffrey Springs starts for Tampa Bay today. He is coming off a tough-luck start in which he yielded an unfortunately high .467 BABIP despite doing a great job of inducing soft contact while limiting hard contact.
His 3.12 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start reflects how well he actually performed.
Before that outing, he yielded a sub 2.30 FIP in four straight starts.
Springs vs. Yankee Batters
In addition to carrying strong form into today's game, Springs possesses too much individual quality for New York to handle.
While, even in the second half of the season, the Yankees rank positively against Springs' favorite pitches from lefties, they have been struggling against stronger iterations of those pitches.
Thus, while they've hit no-name lefties who throw Springs' favorite pitches, they've struggled against Patrick Sandoval and, indeed, Springs himself.
Springs last faced the Yankees in August in New York where he yielded one run in five innings.
MLB Pick: Rays ML (-120) at BetOnline
For today's MLB Picks, expect an upset win from Cleveland and a win from Tampa Bay.
For the above reasons, parlay both teams on the moneyline.
Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
- Mariners vs. Guardians: Guardians ML (+128)
- Yankees vs. Rays: Rays ML (-120)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+318) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.