MLB Parlay for Today at (+300) Features Aaron Nola and Shohei Ohtani

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Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels pitches in the fourth inning against the Houston Astros. Bob Levey/Getty Images/AFP

The top-rated sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action and two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in:

  • Phillies vs. Braves
  • Mariners vs. Angels

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the moneyline for the first game and the total for the second.

Feel free to parlay these bets at your preferred sportsbook in order to maximize your profit.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves

Saturday, September 17, 2022 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park

Who Starts for Philadelphia?

Aaron Nola starts for Philadelphia tonight.

On the season, Nola has been an unprofitable pitcher for bettors to back. But this fact is a product of a horrible stretch to start the season, in which Philadelphia lost eight of the first nine games that Nola started.

This tendency is purely a thing of the past. Most recently, Philadelphia has won three of the last four games in which Nola started.

Aaron Nola's Form

Nola enters tonight's game in superb form, which helps give his team a great chance to win games in which he starts. Specifically, he's allowed one run or zero runs in six of his past eight starts.

Moreover, he yielded an FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) under 2.80 in seven of those starts.

He's done an excellent job of avoiding walks and home runs.

Even if he has games where he doesn't strike out as many batters as usual, he's ably limited hard contact while inducing more soft contact.

Well-Tested Nola

Crucially, Nola's excellent form has persisted even when facing teams that match up well against him.

For example, a month ago, he yielded an FIP below 2.80 in consecutive starts against the division rival Mets, who rank fifth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.

Nola's three favorite pitches –fastball, curveball, and sinker– are his most dangerous ones.

Opponents hit .188 against his fastball, .213 against his curveball, and .178 against his sinker.

Who Starts for Atlanta?

Jake Odorizzi starts for the Braves today. Unlike Nola, Odorizzi's form has been rather unconvincing lately.

In particular, he's struggled against stronger lineups, such as that of the Mets.

Most recently, Seattle scored four runs off him in 3.2 innings in its hitter-friendly ballpark.

Odorizzi vs. Philly Batters

Odorizzi favors his fastball, cutter, and split-finger. These three pitches combine for over 85% of his arsenal.

Philly hitters match up well against Odorizzi because they rank third in slugging .475 against his favorite pitches from righties.

Watch out, among others, for Jean Segura.

Segura is 7-for-14 with a .929 slugging rate in his career facing Odorizzi.

MLB Pick: Phillies ML (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)


Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels

Saturday, September 17, 2022 - 09:07 PM EDT at Angel Stadium

Who Starts for Seattle?

George Kirby starts for the Mariners today. Kirby enters this game in fantastic form, having allowed one run or zero runs in each of his last four starts.

Perhaps most impressively, he locked down Atlanta in his last start, in which he allowed zero earned runs in six innings.

His command of the strike zone has been excellent. He hasn't allowed a home run since June 27.

Likewise, he hasn't walked two or more batters in a game all season, and he hasn't walked anyone in his last two games.

Kirby vs. Angel Batters

Kirby merits additional optimism today because he matches up well against Angel batters.

Primarily, he throws a fastball, and L.A. ranks 25th in slugging against this pitch from righties.

He does also present a very impressive mixture of additional pitches –in total, he throws six different pitches.

Who Starts for the Angels?

Shohei Ohtani starts for Los Angeles today. Despite repeatedly being dealt low totals, Ohtani is a strong "under" pitcher.

Pertinently to my best bet for this game, the "under" is hitting in 63.6% of his starts.

Ohtani is reliably excellent, including in his most recent outings. He allowed one earned run or zero runs in each of his last three starts despite facing Houston consecutive times.

His great form persists even against teams that match up well against him.

MLB Pick: Under 7 (+105) at BetOnline


Parlay Verdict

For today's MLB pick, expect a Philadelphia win and a low-scoring pitcher's duel in Anaheim.

For the above reasons, parlay the Phillies moneyline with the Mariners/Angels "under."

Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.

  • Phillies vs. Braves: Phillies ML (-105)
  • Mariners vs. Angels: Under 7 (+105)

MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+300) at BetOnline

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.