MLB Parlay for Today at (+290) Features Underdog Rangers

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Glenn Otto #49 of the Texas Rangers winds up to deliver a pitch in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers. Emil Lippe/Getty Images/AFP

The top sportsbooks have released their odds for today’s baseball action, and two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in:

  • Cleveland vs. Texas
  • Seattle vs. Kansas City

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the moneyline for the first game and the total for the second.

Feel free to parlay both bets at your favorite online sports betting site in order to maximize your profit.

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers

Saturday, September 24, 2022 – 07:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field

Who Starts for Cleveland?

Cal Quantrill starts for Cleveland today. Quantrill has pitched against Texas once so far.

A superficial glance at this start, which took place on June 7, suggests that this game went well for him.

But his 6.40 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start reflects how poorly he actually performed.

Quantrill vs. Ranger Batters

Quantrill's poor placement makes him particularly vulnerable to batters who hit his pitches well.

Without compensating with good velocity or by creating too much variety in things like pitch velocity, Quantrill offers an arsenal of pitches that he frequently leaves in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to inflict more damage.

Specifically, he favors his sinker and cutter. He easily throws these two pitches more than any other pitch -- he throws his sinker four times as often as any other pitch except his cutter, which he throws at least three times as often as any other pitch.

Ranger batters merit optimism tonight because they rank second in slugging against Quantrill's pitches from righties.

This fact of their match-up advantage already makes them live underdogs.

Who Starts for Texas?

Glenn Otto starts for Texas tonight.

Pertinently to my MLB pick for this game, Otto has been good at helping his team achieve upsets.

When Otto is listed as the underdog, Texas is yielding +3 units.

Otto vs. Guardian Batters

Cleveland will see Otto's pitches for the first time. His repertoire features a nice degree of variety.

Specifically, he throws a sinker, slider, fastball, and curveball most often.

Otto does not throw any one pitch as much as 27% of the time, and these four pitches combine to make up over 90% of his arsenal.

Guardian batters match up poorly against Otto in that they rank 21st in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.

MLB Pick: Rangers ML (+113) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals

Saturday, September 24, 2022 - 07:10 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium

Who Starts for Seattle?

Logan Gilbert starts for the Mariners tonight.

Especially when listed as the favored pitcher, Gilbert is a strong force for the "under."

In this situation, the "under" hits 68.% of the time.

Gilbert's Form

Gilbert enters tonight's contest in superb form and his consistent success on the mound in his most recent starts makes him particularly reliable.

To be exact, he has allowed one run or zero runs in each of his last four starts.

Gilbert's worst recent start came on August 26 when he allowed two runs to Cleveland in 6.1 innings.

Moreover, his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was sub-3.00 in each of his last six starts.

Gilbert vs. Royal Batters

During his ongoing stretch of solid play, he is thriving against teams –such as the Angels, Padres, and Guardians– that match up similarly against him as the Royals do.

The Royals rank below average in slugging against his favorite pitches –his fastball and slider, which combine to make up over 77 percent of his arsenal– from righties.

Who Starts for Kansas City?

Kris Bubic starts for the Royals tonight. Bubic focuses on throwing three pitches: his fastball, changeup, and curveball.

One would think his curveball to be his toughest pitch to hit in view of its spin rate and movement, but batters struggle to get hits especially off his changeup, probably because of its unusually high 11 mph velocity differential relative to his fastball.

Bubic vs. Mariner Batters

Seattle has scored one run in five of their past seven games –to be clear, they scored a total of five runs in these five games.

The Mariner lineup merits pessimism tonight because it already matches up poorly against Bubic, ranking below average in slugging against his pitches from lefties.

MLB Pick: Under 8 (-120) at BetOnline

Parlay Verdict

Keeping our analysis and the current MLB odds in mind, expect a strong win from underdog Texas and a low-scoring game in Kansas City.

For the above reasons, parlay the Rangers money-line with the Mariners/Royals "under."

And be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.

  • Guardians vs. Rangers: Rangers ML (+113)
  • Mariners vs. Royals: Under 8 (-120)

MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+290) at BetOnline

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Two-Legged Parlay (+290)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.