Today’s baseball card is massive, so let’s take advantage with a parlay!
Top Sportsbooks have released the MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games interest me as worth investing in:
- St. Louis vs. Pittsburgh
- Arizona vs. Colorado
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the run-line for the first game and the total for the second.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Saturday, September 10, 2022 – 07:35 PM EDT at PNC Park
Who Starts for St. Louis?
Jack Flaherty starts for the Cardinals tonight. After enduring an extended absence, he returned on September 5 to face Washington.
While he collected the loss, he can hardly be blamed for it: he allowed one run in five innings, striking out six batters while walking one.
As evident in his average fastball velocity in this start against the Nationals and how it compares with his average velocity last year, Flaherty is back to full strength.
Flaherty in Pittsburgh
Flaherty is in a strong spot tonight because he is pitching in Pittsburgh.
In his career, he is 5-1 with a 1.95 ERA in six career starts in the Pirates' venue.
Primarily, Flaherty throws a fastball, slider, curveball, and sinker.
These pitches combine to make up about 95% of his arsenal, and they are characterized by strong location.
Heat maps show the frequency with which he places each pitch along the borders of the strike zone, where he uses their movement to toy with the batter's ability to discern whether they will land in or out of the strike zone.
He uses his strong command to play pitches well off each other and to surprise batters.
For example, he may follow a low slider with a high curveball, the latter affecting surprise because curveballs are typically placed low in the strike zone.
With these pitches, Flaherty merits optimism tonight because Pittsburgh ranks 29th in slugging .351 against them from righties.
Who Starts for Pittsburgh?
Pittsburgh starts JT Brubaker tonight.
By far, Brubaker is his team's least profitable pitcher for bettors to back.
Overall, Pittsburgh is yielding -7.30 units in his starts.
While he has been profitable as a favorite, he has been horrible as an underdog and, in general, against NL Central rivals.
Brubaker vs. Cardinal Batters
Brubaker looks unreliable today because he matches up poorly against Cardinal batters given the pitches that he throws.
Most often, he throws a sinker, slider, and curveball. These three pitches combine for almost 90% of his arsenal.
Cardinal batters rank 2nd in slugging against these pitches from righties.
Among others, look for top-tier sluggers Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.
Both bad over .300 and slug over .700 in 15 or 16 career at-bats against Brubaker.
While the Pirates won last night, it is generally a good idea to fade them off a win.
They are a bad team this year because they rarely manage to string wins together.
Pittsburgh lost the last four games that directly followed a win.
Pertinently to my best bet for this game, they lost all four games by multiple runs.
MLB Pick: Cardinals RL (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Saturday, September 10, 2022 - 08:10 PM EDT at Coors Field
Who Starts for Arizona?
Madison Bumgarner starts for Arizona tonight. Bumgarner is coming off a positive start, but he deserves zero confidence tonight as a result of it.
That start came against Milwaukee, which has been one of the worst lefty-hitting teams all season.
Before facing Milwaukee, he had allowed five earned runs or more in four straight outings.
Because Bumgarner so often struggles and is intimidating only in view of the pitcher he used to be, he is a strong "over" pitcher. The "over" is hitting in 58.3% of his starts this year.
Bumgarner vs. Rockie Batters
One reason why the "over" will hit in this game is that Bumgarner is a lefty.
Colorado has one of the best lefty-hitting lineups, although it is notoriously stronger at home than on the road.
Whereas the Rockies slug .369 on the road against lefties, which explains why they struggled in one of two games against Bumgarner in Arizona, they slug .515 at home against lefties.
Who Starts for Colorado?
Jose Urena starts for the Rockies tonight. Urena has faced Arizona twice and suffered consistently.
He yielded an FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) over 8.00 in both starts.
Diamondback hitters are reliable tonight because Urena throws his sinker over half the time and easily more than any other pitch.
They rank fourth in slugging against the sinker from righties.
MLB Pick: Over 11.5 at (-110) at BetOnline
For today's MLB pick, expect a strong Cardinal win and a slugfest in Colorado.
For the above reasons, parlay the Cardinals run line with the Diamondbacks/Rockies "over."
Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
- Cardinals vs. Pirates: Cardinals RL (-120)
- Diamondbacks vs. Rockies: Over 11.5 (-110)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+250) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.