Sportsbooks have released their odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: the Brewers vs. Cardinals and Blue Jays vs. Angels. For reasons that I will explain, you should play the money-line for the first game and the run-line for the second.
Feel free to parlay both bets at a top-rated sportsbook or betting site in order to maximize your profit.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, May 26, 2022 – 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Who Is Starting for Milwaukee?
Eric Lauer is the starting pitcher for Milwaukee.
On the surface, Brewer starter Eric Lauer looks like a dangerous pitcher to go against. While his 2.16 ERA is great, it masks a somewhat worse 3.36 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding). Lauer has benefitted, above all, from an unsustainably high 92.7-percent strand rate.
Moreover, Lauer has had it rather easy in terms of matchups. Until tonight, he has faced zero teams that rank top five in slugging against his top pitches from lefties.
What Pitches Does Lauer Throw?
Primarily, Lauer throws:
These pitches make up 98.1 percent of his arsenal. Tonight's matchup will be the first in which Lauer faces a team that ranks top-five in slugging against them from lefties. I like the Cardinal offense tonight because it ranks second in slugging .494 against them from lefties.
The Cardinals own a strong, righty-heavy lineup that makes them well-equipped to flourish against left-handed pitching. Hence, they have scored five or more runs in six of the eight games in which they faced a left-handed starting pitcher.
Who Is Starting for St. Louis?
St. Louis starts Adam Wainwright tonight at home.
It is important that Wainwright is pitching in Busch Stadium because he is characteristically stronger here than on the road. Whereas his career ERA in away games is 3.91, it is 2.85 at home. Given his stronger success at home, he allowed two earned runs or fewer in all three of his starts last year against Milwaukee in St. Louis.
This year, he has allowed a total of five earned runs in three home starts while lasting six innings in each of them. His consistent success at home will ensure that St. Louis easily allows fewer than five runs tonight.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels
Thursday, May 26, 2022 - 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Who Starts for Toronto?
Toronto starts Hyun-Jin Ryu for the fifth time this season.
He yielded an FIP of well over 5.00 in three of his first four starts. In the one exception, he succeeded at home against a Red lineup that is scoring fewer than three runs per road game.
The fact that Ryu has struggled in every game against better-than-bad competition must make one pessimistic toward his outcome tonight because the Angels rank fifth in runs per game.
What Pitches Does Ryu Throw?
He throws each of these pitches with over 15 percent frequency and they all combine to make up his entire arsenal.
One reason why Ryu is struggling overall this year is that his favorite pitch, in terms of frequency, is letting him down. His favorite pitch is easily his fastball, which he throws just over 40 percent of the time. This pitch was already vulnerable last year when opponents slugged .497 against it.
Ryu Matchup Against Angel Batters
Opponents are absolutely smashing this pitch this year. So far in 2022, they are slugging .773 against Ryu's fastball. In addition to having weak velocity, his fastball ranks in the fourth percentile in terms of spin. Moreover, heat maps show that he often leaves this pitch in the middle parts of the strike zone.
I like Angel batters tonight because they match up excellently against Ryu's already vulnerable pitches. They rank third in slugging .480 against them from lefties. Look out, for example, for Jared Walsh who is 3-for-8 with a double and a home run in his last two games combined.
Who Is Pitching for the Angels?
Angel starter Shohei Ohtani takes the mound tonight.
Ohtani has been a model of consistency this season. He's allowed two earned runs in six of his seven starts and a combined total of four earned runs in three home starts. Because Angel batters promise to thrive tonight and because Ohtani is consistently solid, we should expect a blowout win for L.A.
For your MLB Picks, expect strong wins from the Cardinals and Angels at home tonight. For the above reasons, parlay the Cardinals ML and the Angels RL.
Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
- Cardinals ML (-115)
- Angels RL -1.5 (+135)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.