MLB Parlay for May 19: A Bet That Pays (+270)

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Today’s baseball card is small but attractive. Here’s a parlay for your pleasure. Top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for today’s baseball action.

Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in the Diamondbacks vs. Cubs and Rangers vs. Astros.

I will explain why you should play the side for both games. Feel free to parlay both bets at an online sports betting site to maximize your profit.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs

Thursday, May 19, 2022 – 07:40 PM EDT at Wrigley Field

Who Is Pitching for Arizona?

Arizona starts Zac Gallen tonight for his seventh start of the season. Gallen has allowed more than one earned run in one start this season.

In that exception, he allowed two earned runs. His superb ERA could hardly be qualified as a fluke because it is largely substantiated by a 2.22 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).

Gallen's FIP (and ERA) have never been better in what is now his fourth professional season.

Does Gallen's Strikeouts Rate Matter?

It is true that he is actually striking out fewer batters than before. But strikeouts are overrated and too easily glorified. They are not necessary for a pitcher to succeed.

Strikeouts don't really matter to Gallen because he can rely on inducing outs by generating contact.

He does do a good job of forcing batters to swing at pitches that he throws outside of the strike zone.

Heat maps show that he very ably places his pitches along the borders of the strike zone where batters must be unsure about their location.

Plus, the relatively strong movement of his pitches effectively toys with the batter's perception of whether his pitch will be a strike or a ball.

Given opponents' necessary uncertainty as to whether they are facing a pitch that will be called a ball or a strike, they are easily tempted to swing at his pitches that would have been balls.

Gallen, though, often doesn't finish batters off with strikeouts. What is most important to Gallen is the strong decline in the hard contact rate.

Batters are struggling against Gallen because they are having massively more trouble making good contact against his pitches.

Control 

Gallen can thrive as he's doing because of his strong control. His strong control is evident in his superior walk and home run rates.

He has walked a total of five batters in six starts and he didn't allow a home run before his last start.

These stats must be unsurprising given his ability to nibble the plate with his difficult, movement-heavy pitches.

In addition to nibbling the plate, he does a great job of distributing his favorite pitch, the fastball, along with different parts of the strike zone.

While he'll elevate his cutter, he'll typically keep his changeup and curveball low.

Gallen vs. Cubs' Pitches

I like Gallen tonight not only because he is consistently solid this season, but also because he matches up well against Cubs batters.

Chicago ranks 24th in slugging against Gallen's favorite pitches, his fastball, changeup, curveball, and cutter, from righties.

The wheels have fallen off Chicago's win streak. After its most recent two-run output, the Cubs are slated to struggle again from the plate tonight.

Who Is Pitching for the Cubs Tonight?

Cubs starter Marcus Stroman will take the mound tonight. Marcus Stroman is in a uniquely bad spot tonight.

He has not pitched since May 1 due to his placement on the COVID injured list.

Stroman is susceptible to rust. Evidence for why we should expect Stroman to be rusty is in the fact that his ERA is at its worst off six or more days of rest.

He is someone who rather needs to have a routine of pitching off four days' rest. 

MLB Pick: Diamondbacks (-112) with BetOnline


Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros

Thursday, May 19, 2022 -08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park 

Glenn Otto vs. Astros' Batters 

Texas starts Glenn Otto tonight. Primarily, Otto throws a fastball, slider, and sinker.

These pitches make up about 75 percent of his arsenal.

I like the Astros because they rank fourth in slugging .444 against Otto's favorite pitches from righties.

Look out for Yordan Alvarez to build off his already strong slugging rate and OPS.
In his career against Otto, he is 3-for-6 with two doubles.


Can Texas Score Enough Runs?

The Astros start Framber Valdez tonight. It is important to note that Valdez is a lefty because the Rangers rank bottom-10 in slugging against lefties.

I don't think that Texas can score enough runs also because of how hot Houston is. The Astros are 3-0 in their last three games following a loss.

They scored a combined total of 21 runs in their past two games following a loss.

MLB Pick: Astros -1.5 (-105) with BetOnline


Parlay Verdict 

Expect the Diamondbacks to pull off a win in Chicago given its starting pitcher advantages while the Astros bounce back with a strong win

For the above reasons, parlay the Arizona ML with the Houston RL for your MLB picks. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.

Parlay Pick

  • Diamondbacks (-112)
  • Astros -1.5 (-105)

MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+270) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.